2024 CFP First Round Action Report: “There’s a lot of action in Tennessee”

College Football Playoff first-round odds have been rising for nearly two weeks. Undoubtedly, the favorites receive a lot of attention from the betting masses.

But there is also an outsider who attracts attention.

“There’s a lot going on in Tennessee, both on the spread side and the moneyline side,” said Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars Sports.

Perhaps Ohio State, a 7.5-point home favorite, is on alert for the final game of the first round.

Bookmakers and smart bettors offer their insights into the first round odds of the College Football Playoff.

For starters

The CFP begins with a kickoff Friday night at 8 p.m. ET between No. 10 Indiana and No. 7 Notre Dame. And it’s the lowest-scoring matchup.

The Fighting Irish are at -7 (-115) on Caesars Sports after opening -8 (-105) and spending a lot of time at -7.5. But most of the actions run counter to the movement of the line.

“We saw some strong action at Tennessee +7.5. But most of the money we’ve seen so far has come from Notre Dame paired with Under,” Feazel said.

Still, the total is actually a tick above the December 8 opening value (51.5), sitting at 52 late Wednesday evening. But it was only at 50.5.

Limited interest

No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 5 Texas looks to be an exciting matchup. Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are 10-3 (SU) and 6-6 against the spread (ATS) and advance into the 12-team field by winning the ACC title. But Clemson has now reached the College Football Playoff seven times and won national titles in 2016-17 and 2018-19.

And the Longhorns (11-2 SU/7-6 ATS) have a huge following thirsting for a national championship since they haven’t won it all since the 2005-06 season.

A lot could — and probably will — change between now and kickoff at 4 p.m. ET in Austin on Saturday. But bettors are not that excited about this game as the weekend approaches.

“Right now we’re seeing more Clemson money coming in. But this is the least popular playoff game so far,” Feazel said.

This is partly due to the distribution of points. Texas is the biggest first-round favorite in the College Football Playoff odds. The Longhorns opened -11 and are at -12 at Caesars.

Feazel noted last week that the likely need will be what he called “Super Bowl middle.”

“If they like the dog, they play the moneyline with that value. If they like the favorite, they play the point spread,” he said. “So we need the middle of the Super Bowl.”

That means Texas wins the game, but Clemson covers the big spread.

Hot side on campus

College football betting expert Paul Stone watches the first CFP game and likes what he sees from favorite Notre Dame.

In one of the biggest upsets of the season, Notre Dame stumbled badly on September 7, losing 16-14 at home to four-touchdown underdog Northern Illinois. But since then, the Fighting Irish have won 10 straight times by an average margin of 30.8 points. Only one of Notre Dame’s wins during that span was fewer than 14.

In the first-ever game in the 12-team format, Notre Dame is 11-1 SU/10-2 ATS, and in the visit to Indiana it is 11-1 SU/9-3 ATS. This puts both teams in the top five nationally when it comes to covering the spread.

The Irish are 7-point favorites over the Hoosiers, who posted double-digit wins for the first time in school history.

While Indiana’s rise to prominence was one of the feel-good stories of the season, Stone likes Notre Dame’s current trajectory and believes they will prevail by double digits against the Hoosiers.

“Indiana flopped in its first attempt at the big stage, at Ohio State,” Stone said, referring to the Hoosiers’ 38-15 loss on Nov. 23. “And I think things will get better again against Notre Dame.”

The Irish are allowing 13.6 points and 296.8 yards per game defensively and are plus-16 in net turnover margin this season.

“Notre Dame’s defense definitely plays at a high level and usually wins the all-important turnover battle,” Stone said. “The Irish also have a healthy and talented Riley Leonard at quarterback. I like Notre Dame -7 and expect the Irish to pull away in the second half.”

Start and finish on Saturday

No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Penn State opens the CFP tripleheader on Saturday at noon ET. The Mustangs are 11-2 SU/8-5 ATS while the Nittany Lions are 11-2 SU/6-7 ATS.

Unsurprisingly, the action benefits the Big Ten’s second-place team, which plays on its home field.

“We are seeing some favorite money coming in. Not as much as Notre Dame, but the trend is toward Penn State,” Feazel said. “But that line hasn’t moved since we opened.”

The Nittany Lions have been a stable 8.5-point favorite since December 8th.

Saturday’s culmination is the aforementioned matchup between No. 9 Tennessee and No. 8 Ohio State at 8:00 p.m. ET. As mentioned above, Caesars have the Buckeyes (10-2 SU/6-6 ATS) as 7.5-point home favorites against the Vols (10-2 SU/7-5 ATS).

Aside from underdog Tennessee seeing most of the action – both as a 7.5-point dog on the road and on the moneyline to pull off the upset at +235 – the total is getting some notable action. It opened at 47, fell to 46.5/46 on Wednesday morning and was at 46.5 late Wednesday evening.

“We saw sharper action under at 47,” Feazel said.

I like big bets and I can’t lie

As noted here last week, the largest reported bet on the future of the College Football Playoff championship landed in Texas. A Caesars Sports customer from Louisiana lost $1.5 million at +390 against the Longhorns to win the national title.

So if Texas can play four games next month, the bettor will pocket a huge win of $5.85 million, for a total payout of $7.35 million.

But some of the more interesting bets are on the longer shots in the 12-man field.

This week, for example, a Caesars customer in Nevada bet $2,000 on Arizona State +4000 to win it all. Should the Sun Devils do the unexpected, the bettor will win $80,000.

Better still are these two small bets with big potential – unlikely as they may be – at Caesars:

• $100 on Arizona State +100,000 – in a slightly easier to read format, that’s 1000/1 – to lift the trophy on January 20th in Atlanta. If the Sun Devils come out on top, the bettor turns that hundred dollars into $100,000. The bet was made on July 18th.
• $400 on Boise State +25,000 (250/1) to win the CFP on a July 16 bet. If the Broncos win the title, the bettor will win $100,000.

Those are two very nice tickets to sit on right now, and both will live for at least another week as ASU and Boise State earned byes in the first round. We’ll see what bettors think about these two teams next week when the second round games are determined.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a respected journalist in the national sports betting space. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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