2024 FCS Playoffs: #5 UC Davis at #4 South Dakota Quarterfinals Preview and Prediction

No. 5 seed UC Davis (11-2) will face No. 4 seed South Dakota (10-2) in the FCS quarterfinals.

South Dakota is a 6.5-point favorite at BetMGM with a total score of 55.5. Kickoff is Saturday, December 14th at 2:00 p.m. CT and will air on ESPN+.

It is the smallest spread of the four quarter-final games. Here are some names and numbers you should know, as well as a score prediction.

When UC Davis has the ball…

UC Davis has as good a QB-RB duo as any in the FCS.

Quarterback Miles Hastings placed 7th in voting for the Walter Payton Award and running back Lan Larison placed 5th. Like some of the other guys in the FCS, they both had a strong case for being in the top 3 invited to the awards ceremony.

Hastings completed 69.9% of his passes (328/469) for 4,148 yards, 35 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He now leads the FCS in passing yards and ranks sixth in the subdivision with his pass efficiency of 165.4.

Larison leads the FCS with 2,323 all-purpose yards and 178.7 all-purpose yards per game. He averages 5.1 yards per carry, totaling 1,425 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. Larison also leads UC Davis with 61 catches for 842 yards and six touchdowns.

While Larison gets a lot of touches, Hastings still distributes the ball well. Samuel Gbatu Jr. has 41 catches for 739 yards and seven touchdowns. CJ Hutton has 48 catches for 637 yards and two scores. Chaz Davis (34 catches, 560 yards, 7 TDs), Trent Tompkins (54 catches, 497 yards, 4 TDs) and Winston Williams (33 catches, 261 yards, 6 TDs) are also in the mix.

With a variety of weapons, UC Davis ranks 8th in FCS scoring offense (35.8 PPG).

Eli Simonson (6’6″ 285 lbs) and Ernesto Nava (6’4″ 305 lbs) are two All-Big Sky selections on the O-line, a unit that was fairly good but not dominant. The Aggies rank 58th in FCS run blocking on PFF, 26th in pass blocking, and their 1.92 sacks allowed per game are 64th.

They will be going up against one of the best defenses in the FCS.

USD is No. 3 in FCS scoring defense (16.3 PPG), No. 10 in rushing defense (109.6 YPG), No. 33 in pass defense (192.8 YPG), No .9 in PFF total defense and No. 3 in PFF run defense, No. 1 in PFF tackles and No. 31 in the PFF cover.

As these numbers show, USD is not easy to work with. But teams have had some success throwing the ball.

The D-line is a ferocious unit led by Mi’Quise Grace (58 tackles, 18 TFLs, 9.5 sacks, 9 QB hurries) and Nick Gaes (43 tackles, 10 TFLs, 8 sacks), two All-MVFC First team performers the edge. Blake Holden is a second-team selection at interior with 41 total tackles, six TFLs, four sacks and five QB hurries.

Gary Bryant III has moved up at linebacker and leads the team with 86 tackles as a Second Team All-MVFC player. LB Nate Ewell is second with 63 stops.

The secondary is experienced and talented despite the aforementioned passing numbers. Part of these numbers are due to teams being forced to pass while the running game was unsuccessful. Dennis Shorter is a First Team All-Conference safety with 63 total tackles, two interceptions and 10 pass breakups. Safety Josiah Ganues earned Honorable Mention honors with 45 tackles and two pass breakups.

As a cornerback, Mike Reid was named to the second team, where he recorded 35 tackles, two interceptions and seven pass breakups. Shahid Barros is a long-time starter at CB and has 33 tackles, one interception and three pass breakups this season.

RELATED: Odds of winning the FCS National Championship

When the USD has the ball…

USD’s offensive was extremely efficient. And the film scores back it up. The Coyotes are No. 1 on PFF in FCS total offense, No. 2 in passing, No. 3 in receiving, No. 1 in rushing and No. 1 in run blocking.

Statistically, the Yotes are No. 4 in FCS scoring offense (37.4 PPG), No. 5 in rushing offense (230.3 YPG) and No. 48 in passing offense (217 .0YPG).

Aidan Bouman provides a steady presence at quarterback. He threw for 2,470 yards, 16 touchdowns and two interceptions and completed 180/261 of his passes (68.9%). Bouman is the third-best FCS quarterback at PFF, behind Montana State’s Tommy Mellott and NDSU’s Cam Miller. His passing efficiency of 167.2 ranks fifth in the minors.

Bouman’s favorite target was Carter Bell, who led USD with 46 catches for 685 yards and three touchdowns. Quaron Adams has developed into a home run hitter, recording 16 catches for 457 yards (28.56 yards per catch) and five touchdowns. First Team All-MVFC tight end JJ Galbreath has 20 catches for 356 yards and two scores, but has not played since late October due to injury and is questionable this week.

However, the USD offensive wants to establish the run first. And the Yotes have a top RB duo in the FCS.

Travis Theis and Charles Pierre Jr. are the No. 3 and 4 FCS running backs by PFF. Pierre has 1,153 rushing yards (7.6 yards per carry) and 15 touchdowns. Theis has 976 rushing yards (6.3 YPC) and 16 points. They run behind a large and experienced O-line with First Team All-MVFC selection Joey Lombard (6’5″, 305 lbs) and second team players Joe Cotton (6’7″, 315 lbs) and Bryce Henderson (6’8″). 320 pounds).

It will be strength against strength.

UC Davis’ defense ranks 23rd in the FCS in rushing defense (119.9 YPG) and 29th in scoring defense (22.2 PPG). Similar to USD, opponents had more success throwing the ball than running it. The Aggies are allowing 240.4 passing yards per game, which is 96th in the FCS.

The Aggies are physical against the run. Princeton Toki sets the tone in the midfield at 5-foot-10 and weighs 375 pounds. Zach Kennedy is also physically impressive on defense. The 6-foot-6, 275-pounder is a first-team All-Big Sky selection with 27 tackles, five TFLs, two sacks and five quarterback hurries. Evan Bearden is 6-foot-1, 250 pounds and is a second-team all-conference player with 27 tackles and 1.5 TFLs.

David Meyer had a phenomenal year at linebacker. The all-conference first teamer has 113 tackles, 7.5 TFLs and four interceptions. First team safety Rex Connors isn’t far behind with 99 tackles, three TFLs, two interceptions and six pass breakups. Rex’s twin brother Porter is a second-team linebacker with 81 tackles, 5.5 TFLs and three interceptions.

Kavir Bains also had an outstanding season as a First Team All-Big Sky selection. The defensive back has 74 tackles, 8.5 TFLs, two interceptions and 13 pass breakups.

UC Davis is tied for 11th in the FCS with 15 interceptions.

Special teams

UC Davis kicker Hunter Ridley has a 16/18 field goal percentage with a long of 46 yards. Matteo Perez returned 19 punts for 74 yards. CJ Hutton returned 11 kicks for 248 yards.

South Dakota kicker Will Leyland has a 9/13 field goal average of 45 yards. Carter Bell had 11 punt returns for 115 yards and a touchdown. Keyondray Jones-Logan has eight kick returns for 325 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 40.6 yards per return, which would rank No. 1 in the FCS.

Prediction recording:
2024 record: 122-37
2023 record: 96-42

UC Davis-South Dakota forecast

This looks to be a fantastic quarterfinal game, probably the best of the weekend.

Both teams have a great backcourt, playmakers on the outside and strong defense. Whichever quarterback makes the bigger throws in big moments could make the difference. Coincidentally, both offenses rank near the top 20 on third down conversions at 45%. There will be money losses on Saturday.

The Yotes are so talented defensively. Nevertheless, the opponents seemed to have managed to find something in the last few games. North Dakota scored 36 last week, NDSU scored 28 and Tarleton State scored 31. Some of that is due to the flow of the game or unique schemes. But there is something. And if there’s one offensive coaching staff that can exploit the weaknesses, it’s UC Davis, led by head coach Tim Plow.

USD is as diverse a team as the FCS, as evidenced by their win over NDSU and their near-win at SDSU. But there’s just something special about this UC Davis team. The pressure here is on the USD. The Coyotes are at home and are considered FCS title contenders for the first time. UC Davis is the slight underdog and exudes coolness and confidence.

Davis fits well with what USD wants to do offensively to keep this game close on the road. And I think the Aggies can find ways to get their playmakers in space and have success. It’s going to come down to the wire, and if UC Davis has a chance to tie or go for the win late in the game, I think the Aggies are going for the win.

Prediction: UC Davis 36-35 (OT)

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