2024 NFL Playoffs Image: AFC, NFC Seed Predictions, Odds

We’re through Week 15 of the 2024 NFL regular season. Although the postseason is still three weeks away, we take an early look at the current playoff picture and the path to Super Bowl LIX. Which teams are in good shape? Which ones still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field?

We used ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to forecast the remainder of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We’ve added updated odds for each team to reach the postseason, win their division and even reach the Super Bowl. We also looked at the potential for teams in the playoffs to finish with certain seeds and the potential for teams outside the playoffs to finish with the top draft pick. Here you will find everything you need now.

Last updated: December 17 at 10 a.m. ET

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AFC | NFC | seeds | No. 1 choice

Projecting the AFC playoff field

The Chiefs, Bills and Texans all won their respective division titles, and the Steelers are also officially in the playoffs – although they still have some work to do in the AFC North. And with the Ravens, Broncos and Chargers all having a good shot at making the playoffs, there may not be much to play for in this conference the rest of the way.

Six teams are eliminated from the AFC: the Titans, Raiders, Jets, Patriots, Jaguars and Browns.

NFC playoff field projection

The Lions, Eagles and Vikings have all secured a playoff spot, and the Packers are poised to join them. But there is still a lot of room for improvement with NFC.

The NFC South appears to be a two-team race between the Buccaneers and Falcons, with Tampa Bay the favorite (80% to win the division). The NFC West is wide open. The Rams have a 53% chance of making both the playoffs and the division. But both the Seahawks and Cardinals are very much alive there.

The Giants, Bears and Panthers have been eliminated and the Cowboys, Saints and 49ers are headed that way.

Check out our NFL Playoff Machine

Simulate your own scenarios and view the latest playoff image: Try the 2024 NFL Playoff Image.

Seeding projections

Here are the odds of teams in the playoff mix falling into each slot once the field is set. ESPN’s FPI is fairly confident that Houston will finish in fourth place in the AFC, but it’s not certain about other playoff contenders. The Ravens, for example, have a 24% chance of finishing third, a 42% chance of finishing fifth, and a 25% chance of finishing sixth. And when it comes to the top spot, the Chiefs have a 78% lead.

Due to the tight division races in the NFC, the numbers 3 and 4 are highly coveted. Interestingly, the No. 5 seed is almost guaranteed for the NFC North runner-up. And when it comes to the No. 1 seed, the Lions have the advantage over the Eagles and Vikings right now — but the gap has narrowed.

Race for the No. 1 draft pick in 2025

The Giants (2-12) are eliminated from the playoffs and appear to have the edge for the No. 1 seed in April. After releasing Daniel Jones, New York will certainly look at the quarterback class. But the Patriots and Panthers are also in the running for the top selection. The full draft regulation can be found here, which will be updated on Tuesdays.

NFL playoff schedule

11th–13th January 2025: Wildcard round
18th-19th January: Divisional round
January 26: AFC and NFC championship games
February 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)