3 buttons, score prediction for Iowa football vs. Missouri in the Music City Bowl

The matchup against No. 19 Missouri will be a test of the rushing attack without Kaleb Johnson and the secondary without Jermari Harris

NASHVILLE, Tenn. – Iowa football has already faced Missouri in a variety of ways this month.

Iowa and Missouri both vied for transfer portal recruits Langden Kitchen and Beau Pribula, and Missouri won both recruiting battles. Then on Friday in Nashville (with much lower stakes), the Hawkeyes won the team title in a hot chicken-eating contest at an event that welcomed both teams to the bowl grounds.

As for the upcoming Iowa-Missouri contest on the football field, here are three keys for the Hawkeyes to take home another Music City Bowl trophy:

How effective is Iowa’s rushing attack without Kaleb Johnson?

It’s hard to overstate the impact Kaleb Johnson has had on the 2024 Iowa offense.

When Johnson rushed for at least 100 yards, the Hawkeyes were 7-1. When he missed that mark, the Hawkeyes were 1-3. (The only win was Iowa’s bizarre 13-10 victory over Nebraska, in which the Hawkeyes capitalized on Nebraska’s weak punt and other errors.)

Iowa will have to find a way to win Monday without Johnson, who opted out of the bowl game as he prepares for the 2025 NFL Draft. The Hawkeyes may also be without starting center Logan Jones, who has a cast on his right hand. (Iowa has not made any official statements regarding Jones’ status.)

Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson are Iowa’s top two running backs. Moulton, a redshirt freshman, has 377 rushing yards and an average of 5.4 yards per carry this season – a number boosted by his 68-yard touchdown run against Maryland in Week 13. Patterson has 235 rushing yards and an average of 4.4 yards per carry. However, this could also be an opportunity for others to get to know the field, including true freshmen Brevin Doll and Xavier Williams.

Iowa will also have a healthy Brendan Sullivan at quarterback. He proved to be an effective dual threat in Iowa’s wins over Northwestern and Wisconsin, rushing for 40 and 58 yards, respectively, while completing more than 60 percent of his passes in both games.

Brady Cook vs. Iowa’s secondary

Missouri’s Brady Cook looks to be one of the better quarterbacks the Hawkeyes will face this season.

Cook has completed 63.3 percent of his passes with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. He also has 169 rushing yards this season, including a 30-yard carry against Arkansas and a 31-yard carry against Buffalo. His numbers were even better in 2023 – when he completed 66.1 percent of his passes, had 21 touchdown passes versus six interceptions and racked up 319 rushing yards.

Cook “makes the right throw every time,” Iowa linebacker Jay Higgins said.

“Then as soon as you go to sleep, he’s going to beat the crap out of you,” Higgins said. “He has the ability to run. … Really good at throwing the ball on the run, really good at extending the play. So he’s a guy that we need to make sure we stay in coverage even when he leaves the pocket. And he has the ability to win the first down himself.”

When Cook has thrown for at least 190 yards, the Tigers are 7-1 this season. (The only loss came by four points to South Carolina, which finished the season ranked No. 15 in the College Football Playoff rankings.)

Which underclassmen emerge as potential contributors in 2025 and beyond?

A bowl trophy (and a chance for Kirk Ferentz to break Woody Hayes’ record for all-time wins as a member of the Big Ten) is on the line when the Hawkeyes take the field at Nissan Stadium.

But Monday’s final outcome aside, this could also be an opportunity to get a first look at who could ultimately be a key contributor (or even star) for Iowa in the seasons to come.

That was evident in Cooper DeJean’s touchdown-saving tackle against Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl three years ago and Xavier Nwankpa’s pick-six (also against Kentucky) in the Music City Bowl two years ago.

At the same time, a bowl game is still a small sample size. In last season’s 35-0 loss to Tennessee, for example, quarterback Marco Lainez’s 51 rushing yards seemed to be a bright spot. This wasn’t a harbinger of future success, however, as Lainez didn’t play at all in 2024 and then entered the transfer portal.

forecast

Missouri is far from an insurmountable opponent, but Iowa has some notable question marks as it plays a ranked opponent without Johnson, Jermari Harris and possibly Jones.

Missouri 20, Iowa 17

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