The tiny majority of Republicans in the House of Representatives is coming into focus

At the start of last week, there were still a handful of unresolved races in the U.S. House of Representatives. At the beginning of this week, almost all congressional elections were called. NBC News reported:

As things stand, Republicans have won 220 seats while Democrats have won 214 seats. There is still one outstanding race in California where the Democratic candidate appears to be ahead. Although the race has not yet been called, most observers believe we will likely end up with a 220-215 tie. (For the cycle, this will represent a net gain of two seats for Democrats in the House.)

For Republicans, the good news is that the party’s majority will still exist when the 118th Congress begins. The bad news for Republicans is that they will have their smallest majority in about a century.

But the closer you look, the more complicated the picture appears: The 220-person majority also includes Florida’s Matt Gaetz, who resigned just a few weeks after his re-election victory. They also include Republican Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York and Michael Waltz of Florida, both of whom are poised to give up their seats to join the Trump administration.

Yes, there will be special elections to fill these vacancies, and Republicans like their chances of keeping these seats. But as a practical matter, the balance of power will be 217-215 in the first few months of the next Congress.

In purely mathematical terms, this means that for important votes where Democrats are united in opposition, the GOP conference must take place in the House of Representatives complete united for success. If even one Republican member balks, it will be enough to derail the party’s legislative efforts. (A 216-216 vote represents a failure. Bills require a majority to advance.)

And if recent history is any guide, keeping the entire House Republican conference together will be extremely difficult.

Even choosing a House speaker could be difficult given how many Republicans have criticized incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson. Let’s not forget that some right-wing members tried to take away Johnson’s gavel as recently as April. The campaign was a dud because only three GOP members joined the program, but next month three members could well be decisive.

As for how we got to this point, let’s not forget that North Carolina voters elected a Republican majority to the state Supreme Court in 2022, which in turn allowed the state’s Republican legislature to have one to pass a radically manipulated congressional map.

The result of this one change was three additional GOP seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Without the North Carolina gerrymander, we would be seeing House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries.