Malibu fire fueled by “exceptional, extreme” winds. How long will dangerous conditions last?

The Franklin Fire burning in Malibu is caused by damaging winds, dry conditions and low humidity, which combined to cause the fire to explode.

Conditions

Around the time the fire spread, gusts of up to 65 miles per hour were reported. Around 3:30 a.m., winds weakened slightly, with gusts in the 40 mph range, National Weather Service meteorologist Todd Hall said.

Unlike the Woolsey fire in 2018, water-dropping aircraft were able to fly overnight.

But Hall said patterns observed in previous wind events in Santa Ana “suggest that winds should increase toward daybreak,” which happens around 6:50 a.m

The relative humidity in the fire area on Tuesday morning was less than 5% – exceptionally dry.

The National Weather Service office had issued a rare warning of a “particularly dangerous situation” in Los Angeles and Ventura counties that was expected to last until Tuesday at 2 p.m.

The strong wind warning is expected to last until 1pm on Tuesday.

And a regular red flag warning — meaning the National Weather Service has high confidence that dangerous fire conditions will prevail — is expected to last through Wednesday afternoon.

The particularly dangerous areas include large parts of Ventura County, such as Thousand Oaks, Ventura, Oxnard, Fillmore and Ojai, as well as places such as Malibu, Canoga Park, Santa Clarita and Acton in LA County.

The area is particularly dry. Since the start of the water year on October 1, only 0.14 inches of rain has fallen in downtown Los Angeles. That’s well below average for this time of year, which has already seen a drop of 1.87 inches.

There isn’t much hope for rain next week for Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

“We don’t see any significant rain prospects for the L.A. area next week,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Robbie Munroe. “We’ll probably stay dry.”

Forecast for Tuesday

• The “particularly dangerous situation” fire warning is valid until Tuesday at 2 p.m
• The red flag fire warning is in effect until Wednesday afternoon.
• The Franklin fire burned at least 1,800 acres of land.
• The eastern half of Malibu was ordered to evacuate, and an evacuation warning was in effect for the rest of the city. According to the fire department, around 6,000 people live in the area that has to be evacuated – most of the city, which has a population of around 11,000. Around 2,000 structures are affected by the mandatory evacuation order. Pepperdine University has asked people on campus to shelter in place.

Wind gusts recorded:

• Magic Mountain Truck Trail – 93
• Palo Sola Truck Trail – 77
• Oakridge Oil Field – 74
• Boney Mountain – 73
• lime kiln comb – 68