Better trade: Cody Bellinger to the Yankees or Kyle Tucker to the Cubs?

The Yankees were interested in trading for Kyle Tucker. Instead, they landed Cody Bellinger. It came with a very different cost and was expected to produce a different kind of return. The Cubs, of course, were involved in both transactions involving the multiple All-Stars.

That sparked the following debate between our MLB writers:

Which job do you like better: The Yankees‘Deal for Cody Bellinger or the Boy‘ exchange for Kyle Tucker?

Deesha Thosar: There are different points of view, but my answer is Bellinger to the Yankees – especially because they essentially got him for free. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman sent 30-year-old right-hander Cody Poteet to Chicago in exchange for Bellinger. The veteran right-hander has a 3.80 ERA in 24 games (13 starts) over three years in the major leagues between the Marlins and Yankees, and he will serve as just another depth arm on the Cubs’ pitching staff. Sure, Poteet’s 2.22 ERA in 24.1 innings last year — including four solid starts while Gerrit Cole began the year on the injured list — was valuable to the Yankees’ rotation.

But the trade deal to part ways with Poteet, as opposed to a top prospect in the Yankees’ farm system, was as easy a decision for Cashman as choosing to wear a coat in New York in the winter.

Bellinger’s versatility in this field is a focus of this profession. Last season, the former MVP award winner appeared defensively at all three outfield positions (49 games in right field, 48 games in center and one game in left field) and played a fair portion of first base (22 games). Depending on the hustle and bustle of the Yankees’ front office for the rest of this offseason, manager Aaron Boone could use Bellinger at center, right base or first base to make up for the roster deficit left by Opening Day. Right now, Bellinger makes the most sense at first base or center field because Aaron Judge can move back to right and Jasson Domínguez can continue to increase his reps at left. But if the Yankees sign either Christian Walker or Teoscar Hernández, for example, Bellinger can fill the remaining position gap.

So we know the deal made sense for the Yankees from a roster perspective, but it was also fair from a financial perspective. New York will pay Bellinger $25 million in 2025 while the Cubs take on the remaining $5 million of his previous pact, and the Yankees will pay him $22.5 million in 2026 if he doesn’t opt ​​out . If he does, the teams will split his $5 million buyout.

This means that the risk here lies primarily in the financial sector. It seems impossible to predict what version of Bellinger the Yankees will get in 2025, especially after his offensive numbers dipped in 2024. However, with Bellinger just a year removed from his comeback campaign with the Cubs (4.4 fWAR, 136 wRC+ in 2023), the Yankees are betting they can help him get back into that form. If Bellinger gets anywhere close to his All-Star potential, he’s a steal for the Yankees.

Tucker is obviously a big asset for the Cubs, but since they had to trade three players, including top third base prospect Cam Smith, to the Astros for a year, the Bellinger transfer was a break and a break for the Yankees sensible staff reduction step for Chicago that should allow other areas of need to be addressed.

Rowan Kavner: I like both trades, but would prefer the Cubs because they have the better player and the star they desperately needed. Tucker, who bolsters the Cubs’ collection of above-average talent, will most likely be the best player not named Juan Soto and wearing a different jersey in 2025. Tucker may have been overshadowed by other standouts in Houston, but he fits right in behind Aaron Judge, Soto and Mookie Betts for the most wins above replacement accumulated by an outfielder over the past five seasons.

Tucker is also one of only seven top players to have posted more than 4.0 WAR in each of the last four years, which speaks to his consistency. The fact that he managed to do this again in 2024, even though he only played 78 games, speaks for him. At 28 years old, the Cubs are getting one of the best players in the game next year who is still in his prime. His salary, expected to be between $15 million and $16 million in his final year in arbitration, should represent a significant bargain.

Of course you had to give up more to get the better player. The Cubs could afford to part ways with Isaac Paredes to clear the way for top prospect Matt Shaw, but the loss of 2024 first-rounder Cam Smith — who immediately becomes the Astros’ top prospect — was significant. So if you judge these two deals strictly based on who came and went, I can understand favoring the Bellinger deal. No disrespect to Cody Poteet, but he wouldn’t significantly impact the Yankees’ plans for 2025.

The Yankees needed help in the outfield and first base and an injection of talent to a lineup that Soto now lacks, and Bellinger fits every one of those criteria, even if he didn’t reach the level of his $27.5 million salary last season (which that’s why he didn’t log out).

After a brief end to his tenure in LA, the 2017 Rookie of the Year and 2019 NL MVP bounced back in his first season in Chicago in 2023 by sacrificing power for contact. He nearly cut his strikeout rate in half and finished 10th in MVP voting despite significantly exceeding his expected numbers. He returned to Earth in 2024. Still, he should help in the Bronx, where his left-handed bat produces more home runs than at Wrigley Field. In a barren centerfield market, the Yankees found a solid player who could roam the position without losing significant pieces.

But neither team should be finished yet. The Yankees need more offensive help, and the addition of Bellinger will look better if they can also sign one of the best corner infielders on the market. The Cubs, meanwhile, need to use the money they saved from Bellinger’s pay cut on more pitching. So we should have a better answer to this question in a few months!

Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. Deesha, the daughter of Indian immigrants, grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the LA Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. Rowan, an LSU graduate, was born in California, grew up in Texas and then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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