Image of the NFL playoffs week 16: decision scenarios, tables

There are still three weeks left in the 2024 NFL regular season, and the playoff picture is even clearer. Nine teams have already been eliminated from the postseason and seven have secured a spot.

The Bills, Chiefs and Texans won their division titles in Weeks 13, 14 and 15, respectively. The Lions and Vikings are tied for first place in the NFC North, while the Eagles are close to the NFC East crown. The NFC South and NFC West are still very much up for grabs. And understand this: If the Chargers win on Thursday night and the Colts, Dolphins and Bengals all lose on Sunday, the AFC field will be locked. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, there has never been a case of a conference clinching all playoff spots two weeks before the end of the season (since the playoffs were expanded to ten teams in 1978).

Let’s take a look at the decision scenarios for eight teams in Week 16, including how the AFC’s No. 1 seed could be decided at least two weeks earlier for the first time since 2009.

More NFL playoff race coverage:
Projection of final sowing
FPI ratings for each team
Planned draft regulation for 2025

The decisive scenarios of Week 16 in the AFC

Already won: Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans

The matchup: on Chargers on Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

How the Broncos can secure a playoff spot:

The matchup: vs. Broncos on Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

How the Chargers can secure a playoff spot:

The matchup: vs. Houston on Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock

How the Chiefs can secure the No. 1 pick:

The matchup: in Baltimore on Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox

How the Steelers can win the AFC North:

The matchup: vs. Pittsburgh on Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox

How the Ravens can secure a playoff spot:

The decisive scenarios of Week 16 in the NFC

Already won: Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings

The matchup: on Commanders on Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

How the Eagles can win the NFC East:

The matchup: vs. Eagles on Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox

How the Commanders can secure a spot in the playoffs:

• Win + Atlanta loss at Giants (1 p.m. ET, Sunday) + Rams loss at Jets (1 p.m. ET, Sunday) OR

• Win + Atlanta loss to Giants (1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday) + Seattle loss to Vikings (4:05 p.m. ET, Sunday)

The matchup: vs. New Orleans on Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

How the Packers can secure a playoff spot:

NFL playoff matchups from today’s perspective

AFC

NFC