SDSU plays Cal, but also the computer, in a metrics-based game – San Diego Union-Tribune

San Diego State and Cal will play a men’s basketball game Saturday night at an NHL arena in San Jose. It’s part of an informal two-game series that began last year at a high school in San Juan Capistrano.

The SAP Center is 47 miles from Cal’s campus. JSerra High is 68 miles from SDSU.

Both universities have absolutely good campus arenas. Why not just play there?

The short and long answer is: computer metrics. Off-campus venues are considered neutral sites, which count differently when an algorithm determines your metric ranking and potentially your selection and seeding in the NCAA Tournament.

“Nobody wants to lose a home game,” Aztecs coach Brian Dutcher said. “It always hurts you metrically. But if you play a neutral game, sometimes you can survive it. People are checking all these numbers.”

Always the numbers.

The Aztecs play Cal on Saturday night (7:30 p.m., ACC Network). They also play computers.

Advanced metrics are defining men’s college basketball, replacing the simple RPI (Rating Percentage Index) based solely on scores and location with complex analytics that include a dozen or more game statistics as well as schedule strength. It’s no longer enough just to win. This way you win relative to the computer’s expectations.

And it’s a computer. It doesn’t take into account the human intangibles of rivalry games, doesn’t adjust for the lung-searing altitude in Wyoming, doesn’t differentiate between a buzzer-beater and a basket scored against the walk-ons in a 30-year-old’s garbage time. Lost a point, don’t know if a referee had a bad day with jet lag, don’t know if there was a flight cancellation the night before (like what happened at SDSU on Friday).

The numbers are the numbers.

There Is something like a bad win or a good loss.

“Point leads are important now,” Dutcher said. “You don’t go out and run up and down and not care at the end because every point counts metrically. Winning is not enough. At a certain level you try to win by a lot of points. Our first goal is to win the game. And then of course a lot of teams try to win by a bigger margin because that has an impact on the metrics.”

What SDSU (7-2) hasn’t always done this season, which may explain why they’re ranked 23rd in the eye test – the Associated Press media poll – but 42nd in the Kempom metric and ranked 42nd in the NCAA’s NET They are ranked 56th despite playing one of the most demanding non-conference schedules in the country with only losses to top 15 opponents.

The Aztecs’ biggest jump since the NET was released on Dec. 1 was 17 spots after a 22-point win at Fresno State, although a 15-point win was expected. They fell short of the projected spread in home wins against three Southern California opponents – UC San Diego, USD and Cal Baptist – and all three fell. (The 100-49 win over Division III Occidental does not count because only Division I opponents do.)

“Obviously we wish our metrics were better,” said Dutcher, whose team is expected to win 78-71 against Cal. “I don’t know why they are or aren’t. We played as difficult as possible. But then there is a point difference in these games. Winning is not enough. At a certain level you try to win by a lot of points.”

Let’s take Arizona. The Wildcats are 5-5 and have yet to earn a top-100 win, but are still ranked 24th in Kenpom and 33rd in NET.

Why? Their five wins against non-power conference opponents, four of them at home, came by scores of 28, 29, 33, 36 and 58 points.

They were expected to beat Southern Utah by 28 points, winning 102-66 and climbing 18 spots in the NET.

UCLA is an indirect beneficiary. The Bruins beat Arizona 57-54 last week, which the Kenpom computer considers a win against a top-25 team. They also have home losses of 31, 33, 35, 36, 40 and 45 against non-power conference teams receiving a check.

Or take 9-2 Maryland, which isn’t ranked in the AP top 25 or among the next nine teams to receive votes. But the Terrapins have seven wins against teams in the 200s or 300s by an average of 40.3 points… and are currently No. 8 in the NET.

SDSU, which beat then-sixth-ranked Houston and has only played two teams that were .200 or worse, is ranked 56th.

It’s become something of a metric cheat code for college basketball’s have-nots, especially since the NET removed the 10-point margin-of-victory cap a few years ago: Pay a six-figure guarantee to have-nots during of non-conference, preferably those that need to cross multiple time zones and exceed the computer’s expectations. That’s often worth more than knocking out a top 25 opponent.

The opposite may be true, namely the danger of scheduling crosstown schools that sleep in their own beds the night before, ride the bus to the game and bring the crazy unpredictability of a rivalry.

After beating USD by 17 when the computer predicted a 24-point lead, SDSU guard Nick Boyd said:

“Obviously we didn’t play our best tonight but I thought 17 was enough. In my opinion this is not a close game. That’s a good margin. …The metrics are the metrics. It’s kind of funny. It’s strange that even if you win, you have to be ahead by a certain number of points. But I live by the saying that the water will find its level and at the end of the day we will be exactly where we need to be.”