The 3 best NFL player prop bets for Monday Night Football: Saints at Packers

Even within a single NFL game, there are numerous betting markets.

From spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props, everything is at your fingertips. It can be a lot to sort out.

So which bets stand out as the New Orleans Saints take on the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football? Let’s take a look at FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL predictions about our numbers at FanDuel Research and NFL odds References are to FanDuel Sportsbook. The lines may change after this article is published.

Monday Night Football – Choosing the best player props

Josh Jacobs over 89.5 rushing yards (-113)

The rushing stat for Josh Jacobs is quite high, but he has averaged 81.9 rushing yards per game this season and has rushed for over 90 yards in five games this season.

But the script is right for Jacobs to rock the boat.

The Packers have a 14.5-point advantage at home over the Saints, who rank as the league’s 30th adjusted rush defense this season.

In six games against teams that ranked in the bottom ten in adjusted rush defense this year, Jacobs averaged 88.2 rushing yards per game on 19.8 attempts per contest. He rushed for more than 90 yards on three of the six carries.

Additionally, the Packers’ success rates are -4.6% above expectations with Jordan Love taking center stage this year. That would put them in 25th place this year.

Christian Watson longest reception for 23.5 yards (-113)

Since trading for Marshon Lattimore, the Saints rank 31st in average depth of target (aDOT) allowed to opposing wide receivers. They also rank 27th in total targets allowed – plus 22nd in catch rate above expectations and 24th in target rate allowed per route for the position.

That’s good for the Packers’ wideouts, especially Christian Watson.

Since the Packers’ bye in Week 10, Watson leads the Packers with a 21.4% target percentage (4.8 per game). But he averaged 96.0 air yards per game and 3.2 downfield targets (over 10 air yards) per game, with a whopping aDOT of 20.0 yards. Watson also averaged 1.8 catches for 20 yards per game during that span.

Additionally, Watson ranks fifth in the NFL in receiving yards above expected on passes that travel at least 10 yards downfield.

While the game is played outdoors, the wind will be light (less than five miles per hour). This bodes well for deep shots for Watson — even if the Packers are expected to play from the front.

Green Bay ranks in the top five in downfield pass percentage and leads by at least one touchdown this season.

Spencer Rattler under 177.5 passing yards (-113)

Spencer Rattler got the start – but is out in the open against a top-eight adjusted pass defense.

From an EPA perspective, Rattler was efficient on 21 attempts last week and wasn’t sacked, but averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt despite an aDOT of 10.4 yards down the field. He was also inside and against an adjusted bottom-six pass defense.

For the season, Rattler has averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt on 120 passes. And of those 120 trials, 96 took place indoors and at home. Still, he was the least efficient quarterback for New Orleans per play, according to the EPA, even after accounting for the opponents he faced.

In Weeks 6 and 7 – an extended stint under center for Rattler – he was in the Hall for both, throwing for 243 yards on 40 attempts against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21st in adjusted pass defense) and 172 yards on 35 attempts against the Denver Broncos (1st).

Although the tight ends were the leading receivers in Week 6, Rattler also had Alvin Kamara and Rashid Shaheed to create space.

Now he is without her again, but also without Chris Olave. Additionally, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (chest/illness) is questionable.

It looks like it will be difficult to move the ball against a stout Packers defense that is also motivated by playoff seeding.

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The above author is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The author’s advice does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice is not a guarantee of a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.