Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Prediction: Connor Bazelak’s swan song

The Arkansas State Red Wolves turned a seemingly lost season into an eight-win opportunity, while the Bowling Green Falcons were just a few games away from a MAC Championship appearance.

Who brings the momentum into the offseason and who dwells on missed opportunities? See where we go in this Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green prediction.

Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green 68 Ventures Bowl Betting Preview

All Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Thursday, December 26, 2024. CFN spread is from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  Bowling Green -7
• Spread
  Bowling Green -10
• Money line
  Bowling Green -360, Arkansas State +285
• Over/Under
  53.5 points
• Playtime
  Thursday, December 26th, 9pm ET
• Location
  Hancock Whitney Stadium | Mobile, AL
• Here’s how to watch
  ESPN

While both teams have some players entering the transfer portal, their rosters are in good shape heading into the 68 Ventures Bowl. Bowling Green could miss starting right tackle Alex Wollschlaeger and linebacker Jordan Sipp Jr., but star tight end Harold Fannin Jr. is expected to play.

MORE: Who decided not to attend a bowl game? Track them all with our College Football Bowl Game Opt-Out Tracker!

The line in this game hasn’t moved much, starting at Bowling Green -7.5 and going down to Bowling Green -7. The total is up from 49.5. Fannin’s decision to play is exciting for the Falcons, football fans and bettors alike.

Arkansas State’s probability of winning

CFN’s FPM is completely in line with Vegas, making Arkansas State a seven-point underdog. This corresponds to a probability of winning of 31.2%.

Probability of winning at Bowling Green

On the other hand, the Falcons are moderate favorites with a win probability of 68.8%. Despite identical records, Bowling Green is the better team on paper, although the MAC has struggled in bowl games in recent seasons.

• vs. Arkansas State: 68.8%

Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green prediction

I’m a big proponent of analytics, even though I rarely address it directly in these previews. Today I’m breaking that habit.

From an analytical perspective, a coach’s record in close games in small sample sizes largely depends on luck. These two teams are prime examples of this principle.

Both Arkansas State and Bowling Green are 7-5, but they got here in very different ways. Butch Jones’ Arkansas State team has been vastly outscored this season. When they lose, they lose a lot – an average of 26.2 points per game, including several losses.

Meanwhile, their victories were nerve-wracking. Six of their wins came by seven points or fewer, including a controversial Week 1 win against FCS Central Arkansas that came on a bad call. The Red Wolves have surpassed a total of 90 points this season.

Bowling Green, on the other hand, struggled in close games, going 1-3 in one-score matches. However, with Connor Bazelak at the helm, those narrow losses include narrow margins to Texas A&M and Penn State.

But when the Falcons win, they win convincingly, which is reflected in their season point differential of +78. Analytically, this suggests a significant difference in quality between these two teams. The question is whether Bowling Green can capitalize on it.

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Assuming Fannin plays, I expect the Falcons to move the ball at will against a team that has relied heavily on turnover luck this season. The Red Wolves rank 132nd in yards per rush allowed and 117th in yards per pass allowed.

Now they’re facing the best receiver they’ve had to contend with all year and an offense that protects the ball exceptionally well and ranks 19th in the nation for fewest turnovers.

All signs point to a regression toward the mean for the state of Arkansas. While I’m usually cautious about backing MAC teams in bowl games, this one is different – I’ve already placed my bet.

Beat Bowling Green in a blowout that clears the over as Butch Jones’ luck runs out. The Falcons are a strong game against a Red Wolves team that is 1-4 against the spread when making more than one field goal.

Forecast: Bowling Green 37, Arkansas State 20

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