3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football vs. Miami in the Pop-Tarts Bowl (December 28, 2024).

ORLANDO, Fla. – Nothing. And everything. At once.

Iowa State has already set a program record with 10 wins, and unless you’re in the College Football Playoff, bowl games are mere distractions with added value.

They are still important because of the additional practices and player development that accompany them. ISU’s players talk about making more history by winning 11 games for the first time ever, and that’s clearly a motivating factor for them.

But now that the playoffs have expanded, bowl games are becoming even more irrelevant, making the familiar phrase “We’ll treat it like any other game” as true as ever.

So ISU and Miami — Saturday’s Pop-Tart Bowl opponents — should let it rip, and there can only be one to cannibalize this crowd-pleasing Pop-Tart.

3 KEYS TO VICTORY

1. Includes Cam, Part II

Miami’s Cam Ward is the best quarterback Iowa State faces this season. Period.

Ward doesn’t run often because he doesn’t have to – and his 36 touchdown passes this season are a testament to his explosiveness and efficiency.

The 1.80 meter tall, 100 kilogram senior’s career began at Incarnate Word and then led via Washington State to Miami. By all accounts, he’s playing on Saturday even though he’s considered the NFL’s top draft pick, and given how Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt played on third and fourth with the Cyclones, With down situations getting out of control, he may be tasked with showcasing all of his talents in Orlando.

If ISU wants to avoid getting shredded by someone named Cam (ahem, Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo) for the second straight game, it needs to scout Ward and shine in the secondary. At this point, star safety Malik Verdon appears to be uncertain at best for Saturday’s game, so younger players at linebacker and safety will have to do their best.

2. Don’t let Rocco get shaken

There’s been a lot of talk – with good reason – about the Cyclones’ inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks this season, but the offensive line deserves some credit for protecting quarterback Rocco Becht.

ISU ranks 20th nationally in sacks allowed with 15 and ranks 11th among FBS teams with 77. Becht’s ability to evade pressure partially explains this, but the O-line has Significantly improved overall and could undo the Hurricanes. vaunted pass rush.

When Becht enjoys a clean pocket, he is extremely accurate, and if his blockers can give him another second to progress, star receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, among others, should be able to to open up and make big plays.

3. Take pictures from both sides

No team in the country converts third downs nearly as well as Miami, which does so at a shocking 56.5 percent rate.

ISU is well below this table at 42.5 percent – and evening out that stat would make a big difference in the outcome of the game.

Not only can Ward extend plays with his feet, but his top receiver, Xavier Restrepo, also serves as his so-called “security blanket.” He has caught 11 touchdown passes and the Hurricanes’ second-leading receiver, Jacolby George, has seven touchdown grabs. Both are deep threats, but tight end Elijah Arroyo could be Miami’s X-factor. He averages a team-high 17.0 yards per catch and has caught six touchdown passes.

So will veteran Cyclones defensive coordinator Jon Heacock initiate more blitzes? It’s a risky game, but what better time than a bowl game where several younger players can showcase their skills. ISU simply needs to pressure Ward or he will dismantle the defense. Heacock is called “the Professor” for a reason, and he’ll have a plan to shake things up.

FORECAST

Iowa State will likely need to score in the high 30s (at least) to beat Miami and its No. 1 offense.

If Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward plays as expected, the Cyclones’ defense will have to force a turnover or two to keep the game close. I think ISU gets close to enough to win a bowl game for the first time since 2021, but they fall just a little bit short.

The wild card? Offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser’s game plan. He could try to run heavily early on to keep Ward and his weapons off the field, but it’s at least questionable whether he should commit to a shootout and lean heavily on Higgins and Noel in the passing game.

Miami 38, Iowa State 33