The Chargers will face the Patriots to clinch the playoff spot

Chargers vs. Patriots, 1:00 ET

PublishedDecember 28, 2024, 7:00 am EST|UpdatedDecember 27, 2024, 6:58 am EST

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Chargers vs. Patriots, 1:00 ET

It’s been a fun week of football so far with wins in both games on Christmas Day. Sometimes the obvious plays hit and it makes me smile a little. I’ve always believed that you should try to make things complicated, and the more difficult you make things, the worse things usually get. I’m a simple guy and try to keep things simple. You may not have to read much further to realize that I’m probably using the simple and obvious play here as the Chargers take on the Patriots.

The Chargers are 9-6 and in the sixth playoff spot. A win here would secure their spot as they hold a two-game lead over the Colts, Dolphins and Bengals. If they lose, there is at least a chance they could miss the playoffs with another loss in Week 18. It seems pretty unlikely that they lose both games, but I wanted to paint a little picture so everyone can tell exactly what the Chargers are playing against the Patriots here. Los Angeles had a very good season in their first season under their Harbaugh brother. Interestingly, of all playoff teams in the AFC, the Chargers have a batting average of .511, which puts them in third place in the playoff standings. However, they have the second lowest winning percentage. This means they beat bad teams but don’t do much against the good ones. I can’t say the Patriots are a good team, so the Chargers should have the upper hand here. The Chargers’ defense, once one of the best in the league, is still second in the league in points allowed. And that despite the fact that she is now in the middle of the field in terms of both running and passing.

November 10, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks on during the first half against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images

The Patriots aren’t a good team, but they were at least relatively competitive. For the year they are 3-12, but this was expected to be a down year for the club. They have lost their last five games, but three of them ended with a point, including two of the three home games. Previously, they beat the Jets, who everyone has beaten this year, and the Bears, another team everyone seems to be beating. Drake Maye was pretty good in center field for the Patriots after taking over in Week 6. He has 10 interceptions, which isn’t ideal and is a bit indicative of his decision-making, but something you have to work through with a rookie quarterback. The Patriots aren’t particularly good against the rush, but without their primary running option I don’t expect the Chargers to be strong, so this could give the Patriots’ defense a little boost. They are better against the pass, but I’m not sure that will play a big role as the Chargers appear to have a pretty balanced offense to keep their opponents on their toes.

Look, I’m not going to overthink this game too much. It’s possible that the Patriots could keep this game within three points, but I think given the varied possibilities and outcomes of this game, this is one of the least likely outcomes. The Chargers are currently -4.5 favorites and while they don’t blow everyone up, most of their wins have come by margins of seven or more points. I think the Chargers win and eight of their wins have come by a margin of seven or more points. Back them to win this and cover the -4.5

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