The Colts could have a good shot at the postseason or be eliminated after Week 17

The Colts reach the playoffs as a wild card if they win their remaining games against the New York Giants (2-13) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12) and one of two scenarios occurs:

Scenario 1: The Los Angeles Chargers lose their remaining road games against the New England Patriots (3-12) and the Las Vegas Raiders (3-12). This would tie the Colts and Chargers with 9-8 records; Without a direct tiebreaker, the Colts would advance due to a better AFC record (the Chargers would be 6-6 and the Colts would be 7-5 against AFC opponents). If the Colts, Broncos and Chargers all finished with 9-8 records, the Colts would be the highest seed among the three and would advance to the playoffs based on the AFC record.

Scenario 2: The Denver Broncos lose their remaining games at the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) and against the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) AND the Bengals and/or Miami Dolphins win their remaining games. Cincinnati ends the season against Denver and at the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), while the Dolphins host the Cleveland Browns (3-12) and the New York Jets (4-11) until the end of 2024.

In the second scenario, the Colts, Broncos and a third (or even fourth) team all have a 9-8 record. Since not all three or four teams have played each other this season, the tiebreaker goes to the conference record.

If the tiebreaker in this 9-8 scenario is between the Colts, the Broncos and the Bengals, the Colts would win it due to a conference record of 7-5, better than the Broncos (who would be 5-7) and the Bengals ( who would do that). be 6-6). If the tiebreaker involves the Dolphins, who would also be 7-5 in AFC play, the Broncos (and possibly the Bengals) would be eliminated based on conference record, and then it would be back to a straight tiebreaker between the Colts and Dolphins, which the Colts own based on their 16-10 win over Miami in Week 7.

The Colts have a real chance to put pressure on the Broncos and/or Chargers – or be eliminated from the playoffs – when they face the Giants on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. That’s because there are two crucial games involving the Chargers and Broncos on Saturday:

Chargers at Patriots, 1 p.m.: A Chargers win secures Los Angeles a wild card spot; A Chargers loss increases the Colts’ playoff chances to 35 percent with a win over the Giants.

Broncos at Bengals, 4:30 p.m.: Denver secures a spot in the playoffs with a win; A Broncos loss and a Colts win increase the Colts’ playoff chances to 36 percent.

If both the Chargers and Broncos win on Saturday, the Colts will be eliminated from the playoffs. If both the Chargers and Broncos lose on Saturday and the Colts win on Sunday, the Colts enter Week 18 with a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Browns at Dolphins, 4:05 p.m. on Sunday: When you plan the perfect weekend, it starts with the Colts winning, the Chargers and Broncos losing, and the Dolphins winning. The New York Times gives the Colts a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs in this scenario; it would still require the Chargers or Broncos to lose in Week 18, but a win at Miami would give the Colts another shot at a three-way tiebreaker with Denver if it came to that.

Chiefs at Steelers, 1 p.m. on Christmas Day; Jets at Bills, 1 p.m. on Sunday: A Chiefs loss and a Bills win means the AFC’s No. 1 seed isn’t decided until Week 18, which would lead to Kansas City facing Patrick Mahomes and his starters in Week 18 against the Broncos in Denver. If the Chiefs have the No. 1 seed through Week 18, it would be expected that Andy Reid would not play the majority of his starters, which would theoretically increase Denver’s chances of winning in Week 18.

It doesn’t matter whether the Chargers and Broncos win on Saturday or the Colts lose on Sunday. But if enough gets in the Colts’ way this weekend, we could end up in a situation where a season-ending Colts victory over the Jaguars puts pressure on the Broncos or Chargers – and into the first weekend of 2025 an incredible observation of the scores.

The kickoff date and time for the Colts’ season finale against the Jacksonville Jaguars will be announced at the end of Week 17 games.