The probability that the weekend will go exactly like this is 1.7 percent. To illustrate, the probability of drawing a single specific card from a deck is 1.9 percent.
“It’s easier to pick the right card than for this scenario to unfold,” said Nettleton, a self-professed sports fan who has co-authored articles on who would have won the 2020 NCAA Tournament and the NFL’s winning probabilities.
However, if you want to feed your nihilistic squad and assume Iowa State University will win (according to ESPN they have a slightly better chance than a dime of beating Kansas State), there’s a 3.2 percent chance – which is the odds about rolling snake eyes with a pair of dice – that they are left out.
And if you want to monetize your fatalism, hedge your heartbreak, or bet on the football gods’ disgust at Iowa State, you can get involved in a six- or seven-legged bet that pays plus 4,006 (a $5 bet wins $200) . 3,347 ($5 win $167) or plus -6,480 ($5 win $324), depending on which scenario you imagine is most painful (Kansas wins, TCU wins, or both win).
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So, for all you tired, worn out and worried Cyclones fans reaching for your protective gear – figurative or otherwise – this is what awaits you before the weekend.
However, there is another option.
“When I got here,” Campbell told the Register on Tuesday, “the expectation was, ‘Woe is me.’” As of 2017, there is no more “Woe is me.” There is an expectation and a demand to be the best. Sometimes we did really well and sometimes we didn’t, but that’s college football.
“We’ve proven in some great moments, some big moments along the way, that we’re at our best. We will definitely work like crazy to be at our best on Saturday night.”
This is the part of the story where it feels like Campbell is Robin Williams and you, dear reader, are Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting. It’s not your fault and it’s time to follow Minnie Driver to California.
Which in this case I guess means setting aside your, er, sports trophy and believing that the universe, the football gods, or the ghost of coaching past have it out for you.
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“Being able to do it with our fan base and the energy and passion that this place represents, to give it something to be proud of and confident in,” said Iowa State’s all-time winningest coach “Boy, I’d hope we’re at that point.”
“After nine years, every time this team takes the field it gives our fan base something to be truly proud of.”
Is that enough to make the most jaded Cyclone fan laugh on Saturday, given the 1-in-52 chance of a kick in the soul without the protection of an emotional sports trophy?
“I’m more worried about the scenario,” Professor Nettleton said, “where they just don’t win.”
You know what? We see that as progress.
Iowa State columnist Travis Hines has covered the Cyclones for the Des Moines Register and Ames Tribune since 2012. Contact him at Thines@amestrib.com or (515) 284-8000 . FFollow him on X at @TravisHines21.
