A blustery, drenching rain amid record warmth

The storm is pushing into the area from the southwest and taking an inward direction, meaning the core of the system should remain just west of New England as it ascends northeast. This will keep the cold side of the storm primarily in eastern New York, making rain the primary type of precipitation in the six New England states during the most intense portions of this system.

The first round of heavy rain is forecast for the morning with the leading warm front, followed by a more intense cold front that will dump more rain overnight.

9 p.m. – midnight

Light rain showers will begin to enter the region from the southwest between 9pm and midnight this evening. These showers should be broken and isolated so some areas should remain dry during this period.

Overnight

Rain will be light to steady across New England overnight and should reach most of New England by 6 a.m. Wednesday. Some areas of central and northern New England may experience some freezing rain showers with temperatures near freezing and some cold air pockets on the surface between the mountains.

6:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m

Rain is beginning to fall across southern New England as some stronger storm cells move through the region. Light rain is expected in the north. Rainfall intensity fluctuates during this stretch with some small breaks in between. This is essentially when the warm front moves through the region, creating a burst of moisture and warmth for the rest of the day.

Lunch – 6 p.m

Persistent rain will continue across New England, with intensity likely to ease for an hour or two in Boston and southern New England between frontal passes. There could be a short stretch where Boston stays dry, but with so much moisture in the atmosphere, it’s difficult to say exactly when. I expect it will mostly rain during this time, so keep your umbrella handy as you head to lunch and back home. You will notice the wind increasing with gusts of around 20 miles per hour.

6:00 p.m. – midnight

Here comes the next wave of rain. The strong cold front will move into the region from the west, bringing with it a broad swath of heavy downpours, with the possibility of some embedded thunderstorms. The wind becomes significantly stronger due to the interaction of two strongly contrasting air masses. This second wave may result in fairly heavy rainfall amounts – up to 1 inch of rain per hour at times – particularly between 6 and 10 p.m

Just before midnight, the front leaves the coast and the situation quickly calms down, with light snow beginning in some parts of northern New England on the cold side of the system.

All signs point to a lot of rain falling over a nearly 24 hour window, with between 1.5 and 3 inches expected. Locally, higher values ​​of up to 4 inches could be possible as recurring severe storm cells move over the same area. Widespread precipitation amounts vary throughout the day from steady to heavy, with some breaks in between.

The strong southerly flow over New England ensures that the supply of moisture from the Atlantic remains intact throughout the duration of the storm.

Given the warm air blanketing the region, rapid snowmelt is also a factor to consider. The combination of new rainwater with existing snowmelt may result in localized flash flooding, particularly in parts of inland New England in Vermont, New Hampshire and the Berkshires. Melting snow can add another inch or so of water to the mix.

Most river levels are low due to the ongoing drought and will help minimize some of the excess rainfall and runoff. However, if we end up seeing some of the higher rainfall amounts in untimely locations, it could reduce water absorption rates from even a thirsty soil and lead to flash flooding.

Minor flooding is expected for about a dozen waterways across New England on Wednesday and Thursday. This has led to flood warnings being issued in parts of western and northern New England. But in general, flooding should be minor.

You’ll hear many meteorologists refer to the “low-level jet,” and that simply means the band of fast-moving wind (the jet stream) that directs the storm into the region. Since it’s closer to the surface, we’ll feel some of that force, as the jet stream’s deep curvature creates a bottleneck effect – tons of fast-moving air above our heads squeezing traffic, thereby blowing it closer to the surface.

Strong winds will also play a role in this storm throughout the day, with some gusts varying between 30 and 60 mph. They are most likely to peak between 3:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m., with gusts strongest near the coast. You should therefore ensure that items in your garden are secured. There were even power outages and falling tree branches in some areas. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few whole trees fell on Wednesday evening and the ground became so saturated.

On the back side of the storm, parts of western and northern New England could see a brief transition to snow as the storm weakens and colder air moves in behind the system. In some places it could be around 2.5cm up to 10cm high.

Boston area: Light showers overnight will turn into periods of persistent to heavy rain on Wednesday morning. There may be some disruption to action on Wednesday afternoon, with persistent rain returning in the evening as the cold front approaches. By midnight, there could be about 2 inches of rain in Boston. Winds will be strong Wednesday afternoon with some gusts of 30 to 60 mph.

Central/West Fair: Widespread rain will increase early Wednesday morning and remain consistent throughout the day, with some more pronounced than others. Rainfall amounts should be between 2 and 3 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches. The rain will be heaviest on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Cape and Islands: Light to steady rain early Wednesday morning with the region’s best chance of a longer break in the weather early afternoon. There will be a second bout of rain on Wednesday in the late afternoon or evening, with heavy rain expected. About 1 to 2 inches of precipitation is expected, but whipping winds will increase in the afternoon and evening with some gusts of 30 to 50 mph.

Rhode Island: Persistent rain and some heavier showers are expected early Wednesday morning. Showers will become heavier and more patchy in the early afternoon before a second wave develops, bringing heavier rain and the possibility of thunderstorms. Some storms could bring strong wind gusts of 30 to 50 miles per hour across the state.

Northern New England: This will be a predominantly rainy event across northern New England, with light to steady rain Wednesday morning, changing to pockets of more moderate to heavy rain throughout the evening. New Hampshire saw the highest rainfall amounts of the three northern states, with totals between 2 and 3 inches and locally higher amounts. Melting snow could increase flooding in the mountainous and hilly areas of Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine. Some cold air will move in behind the storm as it subsides Wednesday evening, which could result in a few inches of snow falling at higher elevations through early Thursday.

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Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.