A significant lake effect snow system is emerging

Buffalo, NY (WBEN) – The lake effect snow band has calmed southward again and is targeting southern Erie County and the southern Plains, giving South Buffalo and the immediate southern Buffalo cities a chance to dig out during the day Sunday.

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A prolonged and intense lake effect snow event will continue into this evening. Ahead of Lake Erie, a band of heavy snow will gradually drift southward and weaken throughout the day, but the western Southern Plains will continue to see some lake effect snow through Tuesday.

The Lake Effect Snow Warning has been discontinued for northern Erie County, but the Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect through Monday for southern Erie County and the Southern Plains.

WHAT TO EXPECT ON SUNDAY

“Overnight, the lake effect snow band fell southward into the southern part of Erie County,” National Weather Service meteorologist Steven Welch told WBEN. “That’s generally where it should stay for most of the day today.”

The band of heavy lake effect snow will continue to hug the coastline from Chautauqua to southern Erie counties today. The band moved quite far south early Sunday and is now south of the Buffalo Southtowns. By this afternoon, remaining moderate to locally heavy snowfall will be along the coasts of Chautauqua and southwest Erie County and likely south of the more immediate southern towns of Buffalo. The maximum snowfall rate has decreased and should generally be 1 to 2 inches per hour today.

“The hardest hit areas were along the lakefront, in Chautauqua County, in the northern third of Chautauqua County itself and then in the northwest half of Cattaraugus County into southern Erie County where some of those areas, particularly northern Cattaraugus and Chautauqua, almost 3 meters of snow reached.

CALCULATION GAME
Although it will be very cold and wintry, heavy lake snow will not be a problem as we get closer to kickoff of the Bills-49rs game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, where an aggressive snow removal effort is underway Sunday.

A band of lake effect snow from Lake Huron will likely reach the Niagara border by late afternoon or early evening and then move southeast across Western New York this evening, potentially bringing a brief burst of snow to the Buffalo metropolitan area. This Lake Huron band will then combine with the Lake Erie Lake Effect snow as it moves south and deeper into the western southern layer, which will likely increase snowfall overnight along the Chautauqua Ridge.

MONDAY

On Monday, Lake Huron connectivity combined with Lake Erie snowfall and northwesterly wind direction will likely continue to produce increased snowfall across portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. Snow intensity in this scenario will be lower than previous days, but still sufficient to impact travel. Meanwhile, the Buffalo metropolitan area and Erie County are experiencing a lull.

“The heaviest snow will be concentrated in areas well south of the greater Buffalo area,” Welch said. “I could see the snow continuing to cause issues in the southern portion of the Chautauqua Ridge area throughout the day tomorrow.”

Accumulations

Additional accumulations early Sunday morning through Monday will be 1 to 2 feet in the most persistent bands from southern Erie County to Chautauqua and well northwest of Cattaraugus County. The southern Buffalo cities will see another 6 to 12 inches, with the majority of it falling early this morning through early Sunday afternoon. The City of Buffalo Northward may experience up to an inch of dust cloud during the late afternoon and evening due to the rapid passage of the Lake Huron Band.

The Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect until 7:00 PM EST Monday
* WHAT…Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet in the most stubborn lake snow.
* WHERE…Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and Southern Erie Counties. The largest additional accumulations will occur in southern Erie, western Chautauqua County and far northwest Cattaraugus County.
* WHEN…Until Monday, 7:00 p.m. EST.
* IMPACT…Due to snowfall and blowing snow, visibility will occasionally drop below 1/4 mile. Travel will be very difficult due to the deep snow cover on the roads and very poor visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS MEASURES…
During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from heavy snow in places with severely reduced visibility to dry conditions just a few miles away. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility and road conditions.
Consider delaying travel. If you must travel, drive with extreme caution. Leave plenty of space between you and the driver in front of you and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration and be particularly careful on slopes or when turning.