A “white Christmas” this year would contradict recent trends

Christmas is just around the corner – just about a week away.

And every year people want to know: Will we have a white Christmas this year?

Well, this year it looks like we have a chance.

First, let’s define “White Christmas.”

The National Weather Service defines it as a Christmas Day in which there was 1 inch or more of snow on the ground at the start of the day.

We have two chances of accumulating snow that fits this bill – the first is Thursday, which is probably our best bet as several inches of snow are expected.

The second chance is on Monday or Monday evening where it looks a little less severe but could still give us at least an inch of snow.

And chances are that this snow won’t melt all that much.

It will be cold over the next few days, only just above freezing during the day as we head towards Christmas.

And if we do have a white Christmas this year, that’s not surprising given the long-term odds, but it would be an outlier based on recent history.

In the long run, we’ve seen a white Christmas in Green Bay nearly 70 percent of the time since the 1880s.

Go just a little north and Shawano is over 80 percent.

And even along the lake, it’s still over 50 percent in Two Rivers and over 60 percent in Manitowoc.

But since 1999 it’s been a different story.

The number of White Christmases in Green Bay has fallen to just 40 percent in the last 25 years.

And as of 2017, there has only been one white Christmas in the last 6 years.

So if we have a white Christmas this year, we’ll be happy about it – they’ve been much rarer in recent decades.