Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 310

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) flyweight finisher Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., Dec. 7, 2024) at UFC 310 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Pantoja is currently undefeated (9-0) against the top 10 in the UFC flyweight class. He has already beaten almost all of the established top contenders, including #1 and #2…twice! It’s a good problem for the champion to run out of competitors. UFC is probably less enthusiastic and was forced to go in an unexpected direction by bringing in RIZIN King Asakura for a rare first title shot. That almost never happens, but Asakura is a worthy recipient. Not only is the Japanese talent a huge star in his home country, he is also an electric knockout artist who has stopped some truly outstanding fighters. By UFC standards, this type of booking is an absolute spectacle and makes for an exciting main event… even if it’s unlikely to sell that many pay-per-view (PPV) buys.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Pantoja vs Asakura betting odds

• Alexandre Pantoja’s win: -250
• Alexandre Pantoja via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
• Alexandre Pantoja by submission: +165
• Alexandre Pantoja on decision: +275
• Kai Asakura win: +205
• Kai Asakura via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
• Kai Asakura on submission: +2800
• Kai Asakura by decision: +800
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Pantoja wins

Pantoja is not a perfect fighter, but the champion knows how to play to his strengths. Equipped with elite jiu-jitsu, an incredible jaw and punching power, the Brazilian is a bit of a marauder. He storms forward wildly, causes chaos and usually ends up in the top position thanks to his ruthless approach.

Is it really reckless if it works?

Although he has a clear advantage on the field, this remains a dangerous challenge for the champion. Pantoja relies on his chin to get through these chaotic encounters, but Asakura is the strongest hitter he has faced since Deiveson Figueiredo. That battle took place half a decade ago and Pantoja has fought many bloody wars since then. To put it simply, the possibility of Asakura breaking his jaw is legitimate.

Rushing is an integral part of Pantoja’s game. He can’t just stop, stand outside and be intimidated by a double combination. However, Pantoja has proven his skills – especially against a dangerous counterattack Manel Kape – sit back and pedal very effectively. Asakura has also shown a weakness for low kicks in the past, which could be a way to build a lead. Then he can rely on lightning less often and hopefully have more success with this venture if he takes it.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

How Asakura wins

Asakura is a nasty knockout artist. He reminds me a bit of Robbie Lawler in that he started his career as a brawler and gradually added other technical tools and strategies to his advantage without losing his wild instincts. Not only does the Japanese fighter have tremendous strength in both hands, but his knees are also among the best in the sport.

It won’t be easy, but the game plan for Asakura is clear here: Sprawl and Brawl, baby! Asakura needs to stay mobile and move outside the fence, where his inexperience in the cage could be an issue. From a distance, Asakura needs to do damage without overexerting himself, as a single easy takedown usually takes an entire round given Pantoja’s excellent top control.

A one-punch knockout is always possible, but shouldn’t be expected given Pantoja’s durability. Instead, I’d really like to see Asakura focus on taking the champion down with bodywork. We’ve seen Pantoja get tired in each of his five-round fights, and Asakura can showcase that trait with cross-punches to the stomach and his infamous intercepting knees.

The more tired Pantoja gets, the sloppier his wrestling becomes. Even if Asakura struggles to stay upright at the start, a well-aimed physical attack could alter momentum and allow for a fatal shot later in the fight.

Pantoja vs Asakura prediction

Asakura is a wild card. He met three really outstanding flyweights in his career (Kape, Horiguchi, Ougikubo) and had split fights with all of them. That’s the nature of an aggressive fighter with tremendous power – he tends to win or lose dramatically, and he doesn’t always have a consistent path to victory.

Still, I think the coin toss is in his favor. Pantoja is a flawed fighter himself. His performance against Steve Erceg – less successful and less dangerous than Asakura – showed some serious problems that could have easily cost him the belt. At 34, the Brazilian is contesting his third championship fight in the last 12 months and has already fought 50 minutes during this period.

This is a huge burden for a fighter who is already in the middle of his career, and he has to step into the cage against an absolutely ferocious puncher. Unless Pantoja secures the early choke – which is certainly possible, even though Asakura has never been subdued – he will end up exhausted in the cage with an opponent who can ignite him.

Defense has never been Pantoja’s specialty…

Prediction: Asakura via Knockout (+350)

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FLYWEIGHT FIREWORKS! The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) concludes its 2024 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Saturday, December 7, 2024 with its tough flyweight champion. Alexandre Pantojawho defended his 125-pound crown against a relatively unknown Japanese import, Kai Asakura, in the main event. In the pay-per-view (PPV) co-headliner of UFC 310 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, the undefeated welterweight contender Shawkat Rakhmonov (No. 3) and Ian Garry (No. 7) will put her on the line with a future 170-pound title shot (more on that here). UFC 310 will also feature the exciting returns of all-action featherweight competitors Bryce Mitchell And Nate Landwehr (in separate fights) as well as a decisive heavyweight showdown between them Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov and much more! UFC 310The start time is scheduled for 6pm ET (preliminary round card) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

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Remember that MMAmania.com delivers LIVE round-by-round and blow-by-blow coverage of the entire area UFC 310 fight card Right Herestarting with the early one ESPN+ Online preliminary round games, which are scheduled to start at 6pm ET (Simultaneously broadcast on ESPN2 at 8pm ET), before the start time of the pay-per-view (PPV) main card 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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