Analysis: How Kremlin disinformation could obscure the cause of the Azerbaijan Airlines crash

CNN
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The cause of the Christmas Day crash of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan is still unknown. Flight recorders were recovered from the scene of the accident on Friday and investigations are ongoing.

But initial indications could point to a possible cause: A US official told CNN that a Russian anti-aircraft system may have shot down the passenger plane. And this version of events – first spread by unnamed sources in Azerbaijan, then openly by an Azerbaijani lawmaker, Rasim Musabeyov – appears to be gaining traction, at least in the international media.

The official picture in Russia is somewhat different. At midday on Friday, Russian state television Rossiya-24’s lead news story about the tragedy said that representatives of plane maker Embraer were expected in Kazakhstan, but did not mention the possibility that the plane had been shot down. And Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov remained tight-lipped about the disaster, in which at least 38 people died.

Asked in a conference call with reporters on Friday to comment on Musabeyov’s calls for a Russian apology, Peskov said: “This flight incident is being investigated, and until the conclusions are drawn as a result of the investigation, we do not consider ourselves entitled to give any.” assessments and will not do so.

“At the same time, we have our aviation authorities who can do this and information can only come from them. We do not feel entitled to comment on this.”

Peskov’s message may set the tone for the Russian media, but apparent evidence of a shoot-down – video footage shows perforations in the plane’s fuselage that look like damage from shrapnel or debris – poses a public relations dilemma for the Kremlin. According to preliminary information, there were citizens of Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan on board; Several international airlines have now suspended flights to Russian cities.

The plane’s original destination – the Russian Republic of Chechnya, ruled by loyal, pro-Kremlin warlord Ramzan Kadyrov – makes the situation even more delicate for the Russian government.

In a thread

“Will Moscow obscure, deny, discard contradictory narratives and force Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to commit a common lie by using its military, economic and diplomatic power?” he asked, suggesting that the incident “showed signs of this, as with Flight MH17 by Malaysia Airlines”.

For those who may not remember, the 2014 downing of MH17 over Ukraine by a Russian surface-to-air missile became a masterclass in Russian spin and disinformation.

The crash, which killed 298 people, was followed by a flood of false and misleading information from Russia. The reports circulating in Russian media were confusing, contradictory and sometimes downright bizarre: the Ukrainians shot down the plane; Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plane was the actual target; or even that the plane was full of corpses.

But the effect was the same regardless of the story. The disinformation surrounding MH17 created confusion, distraction and noise, diverting attention from the root cause, a Russian missile.

A Dutch court ultimately concluded that MH17 was shot down by a Russian Buk surface-to-air missile fired from pro-Russian separatist territory controlled by Moscow, and two Russians and a separatist Ukrainian were found guilty of mass murder in absentia found guilty for their involvement.

It took years for this verdict to be reached, and the investigation into the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane has only just begun. It remains to be seen whether this investigation will also be obscured by the fog of disinformation.