Anthony Santander Rumored as Red Sox Free Agent Target: Smash or Pass?

Welcome back to Smash or passour offseason series where we examine various free agents and trade targets to determine if they make sense heading into the season Red Sox. Next up is a slugger from an AL East rival.

Who is he and where does he come from?

It’s Anthony Santander, who turned down a qualifying offer from the Orioles at the start of the offseason. He just turned 30 in October, he’s a switch-hitter and is from Venezuela.

The Orioles, in case you need reminding, signed 2024 Red Sox slugger/outfielder Tyler O’Neill to a $16.5 per year contract. They are also the team with which Santander made his major league debut in 2017, when he was just under 23 years old. And yes, they are a competitive team thanks in large part to Santander’s efforts, but they are a team that has plenty of promise thanks to a busy farm. Santander was named to his first All-Star Game in 2024 and hit 44 home runs, ranking third in the majors behind two surefire Hall of Famers in Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtan. In doing so, he earned his first Silver Slugger. And so it’s only a matter of time before the “Interest Kings” talks flare up again with another exciting free agent target.

As if Santander’s versatility wasn’t tempting enough, its historical The power of a switch-hitter could tip the scales in his favor for teams that didn’t win the Juan Soto Sweepstakes (see here: the Boston Red Sox, but also his former team, the New York Yankees).

Is he good?

Short answer: yes. He is good.

Longer answer: You heard me mention that in 2024 the only Players who hit more home runs both definitely go to the Hall of Fame, right? That followed 28 home runs in 2023 and 33 in 2022. Santander also recorded 100 RBIs last year, and his strikeout rate also drops to 19.4%.

However, his xBA is only in the 20th percentile at .228, suggesting that if it’s not a home run it could be an out. Additionally, his defensive WAR is -2 outs above average, a 28th percentile ranking, and he doesn’t run particularly well. On a hitting team like Fenway, a slow outfielder can be a problem both defensively and on the base paths.

But who needs a base path??? Man, look at that spray chart!!!

Tl:dr; Just give me his 2024 stats.

.235/.308/.506, .814 OPS, 44 HR, 129 K, 58 BB, 3.3 WAR (his career best)

Why would he be a good fit for the Red Sox in 2025?

Again…this spray chart promises big things. Additionally, the Red Sox are now without their home run leader after O’Neill signed with Santander’s old team. There are some who say that Wilyer Abreu could be the right fielder of the future for the Red Sox if he isn’t traded away. But if you take away O’Neill’s 31 home runs in 2024 and replace them with Abreu’s 15, then the Red Sox would fall out of the top ten in home runs and into the bottom half of MLB, albeit just barely. Given the ongoing injury concerns for Triston Casas, the Red Sox don’t have a surefire threat other than Rafael Devers. Santander would mitigate that.

Why wouldn’t he be a good fit for the Red Sox in 2025?

To repeat myself, there are some who say that Wilyer Abreu could be the right fielder of the future for the Red Sox if he isn’t traded away. Abreu is a guy with a 94 percent shooting rate and elite defense, both things Santander doesn’t have. If Abreu’s development is a consolation prize instead of Santander’s power, then that’s not a bad prize.

How much would it cost?

He has more isolated powers than Tyler O’Neill, he’s the same age as Tyler O’Neill, and he snoops less than Tyler O’Neill. He also turned down a qualifying offer that Tyler O’Neill never received. Anthony Santander’s money has to be at least Tyler O’Neill’s money, right? And expect a year more than O’Neill, if not two. The fact that Santander strikes from both sides of the plate is a huge advantage. My forecast: 4 years, 84 million.

Show me a cool highlight.

Here are forty-four cool highlights. Try not to get dizzy watching where these balls land.

Shatter or pass?

Let me be clear: Juan Soto never planned to play for the Boston Red Sox in 2025. I’m actually shocked that John Henry bid so high. Now let’s get more realistic: Santander is a guy who could solve two problems for the 2025 Red Sox by providing energy and a righty bat. Just look at the spray chart again. Smashed.