Astros possible replacement for Alex Bregman, ranked

Houston Astros general manager Dana Brown can reiterate his club’s intention to keep Alex Bregman this winter. Houston still won’t bring back the two-time All-Star and two-time champion unless it changes its current course.

The Astros reportedly offered Bregman a six-year, $156 million contract this week, well below contractual projections that project Bregman may top $200 million on his next long-term deal. That’s not to say that Bregman has already moved on to more expensive territory. But his negotiations are now similar to those of the late former stars Carlos Correa and George Springer.

Bregman may end up this winter as a lifelong de facto Astro, spending the rest of his career alongside fellow infielder Jose Altuve. A hot market — one filled with big prospects in Boston, Toronto and both New York clubs — makes that scenario increasingly uncertain.

Predicting Bregman’s ultimate landing spot in free agency is a tricky task. The same goes for building Houston’s infield without its anchor at the hot corner. Let’s go over the three possible paths available to Brown should Bregman leave.

With Willy Adames signing a 7-year, $182 million contract with the San Francisco Giants over the weekend, Nolan Arenado is one of the more expensive valid options for the Astros should Bregman flee. Acquiring Arenado at full price ($52 million over the next three seasons) isn’t entirely enticing. But perhaps there is a viable path for general manager Dana Brown. Houston could send some potential capital to St. Louis to have the Cardinals take on some of Arenado’s salary, bringing the ten-time (!) Gold Glove winner to the Astros for a lower annual fee. Such a deal makes sense for economic reasons. This is also not the smart path for a franchise with a mediocre farm system right now.

Alec Bohm, 3B
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF

Consider these the top two trade targets should Houston lose Bregman. Bohm is a 28-year-old plug-and-play replacement at third base, while Bellinger could fill Houston’s void at first base (while also potentially spending time in center field). Both are under team control for another season. Both may have cost the Astros again in the prospect department. Once again, it’s safe to assume Brown will proceed cautiously here given Houston’s talent pipeline.

Jorge Polcanco, IF
Christian Walker, 1B
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

Time to play the cheaper matchmaking game with free agents. Polanco is attractive as a switch-hitter and can slide naturally to third base. Injury concerns are the main issue here, but I would consider Polanco the most likely acquisition for Houston should Bregman leave this winter.

Then there are the two over-30, right-handed first basemen, a description that gives chills to Astros fans still burned by the Jose Abreu era (or misconception). Goldschmidt is more of a one-year flyer who will look to recapture some of his 2022 MVP form (then with St. Louis) in his hometown (Goldschmidt is a Woodlands High School graduate). Walker could make close to $100 million on his multi-year deal, and rightfully so. The former Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman earned the National League Gold Glove Award in 2022, 2023 and 2024 and hit 95 home runs over the past three seasons.

Losing Bregman would be a huge blow to Joe Espada’s club. Adding Walker in response could be a pretty smart solution.

Zach DeZenzo, 3B/1B
Shay Whitcomb, 3B/1B

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Astros won’t spend the money necessary to keep Bregman. We have little indication of Crane and company’s future spending plan. Houston could well envision 2025 as a year after Bregman’s hiatus and use the season to get its finances up to speed before moving on to signing the free agent Kyle Tucker after 2025. From there, we would likely see 2024 rookie Zach DeZenzo get the majority of the reps at third base, with a few appearances from fellow rookie Shay Whitcomb and Houston utility ace Mauricio Dubón.

The above scenario is likely discouraging for Houston fans who are used to playing for the AL pennant in late October. But a harsh post-Bregman reality could soon take hold. If you lose the leader of the franchise, you could quickly end up with a year without championship contention.