Astros sign Christian Walker

A new-look Astros club will have a new first baseman in 2025, as the team has reportedly agreed to a three-year, $60 million contract with a free agent Christian Walker. The CAA customer’s deal is still pending.

Walker’s deal with Houston appears to preclude the possibility of a reunion with Houston Alex Bregman. Houston was recently acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs as part of the trade show Kyle Tucker to Chicago, and while Paredes could have played first base with Bregman on the team, he will now be slotted in at third base with Walker on board. This also effectively eliminates any opportunities Nolan Arenado Landing in Houston — an outcome that was almost there before Arenado invoked his no-trade clause to scuttle the deal.

Walker, 34 years old in March, has been a target of the Astros for some time, dating back to the trade deadline when he was reportedly high on their wish list. Of course, a deal didn’t materialize back then, but Houston still has a need at first base after his three-year deal Jose Abreu imploded on them almost immediately. Houston first basemen – led by Abreu and Jon Singleton – posted a terrible .226/.291/.360 batting line during the 2024 season. Walker, on the other hand, hit .251/.335/.468 – almost an exact match to the .253/.333/.464 line. He has made 3,171 plate appearances since the 2019 season.

In addition to his excellence on the field, Walker has emerged as arguably the best defensive first baseman in the MLB. He has won three consecutive Gold Glove Awards in the National League and leads all first basemen in Defensive Runs Saved (33) and Outs Above Average (39) over the past three seasons. Matt Olson (27) and Carlos Santana (20) are in second place in these respective metrics. Walker’s defensive excellence at his position was essentially unmatched.

Both Walker and the recently acquired Paredes are a good fit for the Astros, given the short left field porch at the newly renamed Daikin Park. That’s more true of Paredes, who is one of the game’s most dangerous and prominent flyball hitters. Walker takes more of an all-field approach, but when he isolates his splits on pulled batted balls, he ranks 15th among qualified hitters in fly ball rate (32.2%). Put more simply: Walker may squirt the ball around a little more than Paredes, but when he pulls the ball, he lifts it up a lot more often than the vast majority of big league hitters. For a right-handed hitter with a lot of power in his bat, that should work just fine with a 314-foot left field porch.

It’s been a bull market for free agents this offseason, and Walker was accordingly hoping to land a four-year deal. He will settle for one year less with a deal that meets initial expectations. His three-year, $60 million contract is exactly in line with our predicted contract in MLBTR’s annual ranking of the top 50 free agents of the offseason.

The $20 million annual salary included in the contract puts the Astros above the luxury tax limit for the second straight season. RosterResource now forecasts luxury liabilities of $244 million – $3 million above the Tier 1 threshold of $241 million for the upcoming season. Their payroll will depend on how that $60 million is distributed over the three years of the contract. However, if distributed evenly, Houston would be at just over $225 million based on actual player salary. (The luxury tax is calculated separately and is based on the average annual value of all the team’s contracts.)

It’s still possible the Astros could fall below the tax threshold. They are reportedly telling teams they have no intention of trading the top starter Framber Valdezbut they have explored the trade market for resources Ryan Presslywho is expected to earn $14 million in 2025. One could also estimate the interest in Backup Catcher more speculatively Victor Caratini and his $6 million salary, then hand over that role to Cesar Salazarwho performed well in Triple-A and the majors last season.

However, there does not appear to be a mandate to fall below the tax limit again. Owner Jim Crane said earlier this winter that he has “the wherewithal” to exceed that limit and reach his 2024 spending level if the right scenario presents itself. At the time, few imagined that this would result in a Tucker trade And They let Bregman walk, but the Astros were averse to the long-term megadeals expected from both players – especially Tucker. Houston hasn’t awarded a contract in more than 30 years Jordan Alvarez‘s six-year contract worth $115 million or more Jose Altuve‘s $151 million extension under Crane’s ownership.

As a result, the Astros will give their second three-year contract in the last three years to a first baseman in his mid-30s. Houston signed the aforementioned Abreu to a $58.5 million contract in the 2022-23 offseason and will still pay Abreu $19.5 million next season after releasing him midway through his contract has. This deal was negotiated by Crane himself and a senior advisor Jeff Bagwellas it came during the break between the team’s firing of former GM James Click and the hiring of current GM Dana Brown. Astros fans may be a little concerned about another multi-year contract for a first baseman well past his 30th birthday, although it’s worth noting that Abreu was 36 in the first year of his contract; Walker will be 36 years old in the final season of this contract.

Walker rejected a $21.05 million qualifying offer from the D-Backs at the end of the season. That will cost the Astros their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft as well as $1 million in cap space from their league-allocated bonus pool for international amateur free agency. That’s the maximum penalty possible for signing a qualified free agent, but the Astros are in this category because they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. The fact that they passed the tax threshold also means that they would only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the now likely event that Bregman signs elsewhere.

As for the D-backs, they get a comp pick after the first round as Walker’s agreement includes more than $50 million guaranteed. It will be a nice parting gift, but Walker’s production will be difficult to replicate with in-house options. Former top 10 draft pick Pavin Smith He hit well in 158 plate appearances last season, but that was his first major league success in five seasons and was only a small portion. The Snakes can hope for a similar late bloomer development as Walker, but the odds are slim. They could look for affordable alternatives in free agency (e.g Carlos Santana, Justin TurnerA Josh Bell Reunion) or browse an extensive first-base options trading market that includes: Yandy Diaz, Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe and perhaps Triston Casass (although the asking price for Casas would be extreme and would certainly cost the D-backs some coveted young pitchers).

FanSided’s Robert Murray initially reported that the two sides were in advanced discussions and nearing an agreement. Jim Bowden of The Athletic and MLB Network Radio reported that an agreement had been reached pending a physical exam. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported on the conditions.