Best NBA Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Bradley Beal, Nuggets-Cavs and More)

Thursday’s NBA slate includes eight games without a single team playing for the second night in a row, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t injuries to contend with in the betting market.

Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Chet Holmgren, LaMelo Ball, Zion Williamson and Victor Wembanyama will all not play on December 5th.

While that’s certainly disappointing when you look at some of these games, it also opens up some potential betting opportunities – particularly in the props market.

I have a few props I’m considering for Thursday’s lineup, as well as a first-half spread and trend that has been the most profitable bet early in games this season.

Here’s a full breakdown of all the bets for Thursday night’s NBA action.

Find Peter Deweys NBA betting record here (Futures included). You can also follow my daily pieces on BetStamp here.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cleveland Cavaliers first half -2 (-110) vs. Denver Nuggets

I recently discovered an important trend with the Denver Nuggets in the first half.

Previously an elite team in the first quarter (in previous seasons), Denver has been a nightmare in the first half of games this season – in part due to its terrible on-off splits when Nikola Jokic is resting.

Denver -16.6 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the bench and +12.4 points per 100 possessions when he plays. If the Joker takes a breather in the second quarter, Denver will be in big trouble.

That has led to a terrible first-half spread record, as the Nuggets are just 4-15 ATS in the first half after failing to cover as favorites again on Tuesday night against Golden State.

Now they face a Cavs team that has a 12-9-1 first-half record and is No. 3 overall in the NBA in net scoring. Additionally, the Cavs have the best first-half net rating in the NBA at home (+25.1), while the Nuggets are just 19th on the road in the first half (-4.3).

I will continue to tune out Denver until this trend subsides.

Bradley Beal OVER 18.5 points (-125)

The Phoenix Suns will face Kevin Durant in Thursday’s game against the New Orleans Pelicans, which should mean expanded offensive roles for Bradley Beal and Devin Booker.

I think it could be Beal who could be in line for a huge Suns game against a New Orleans defense that ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive rating and 23rd in opponent points per game.

Beal has scored 28 and 24 points, respectively, in his two games without Durant and has taken 16.5 shots per game in those contests.

Overall, the Suns’ star guard is averaging 17.5 points per game this season while shooting 49.7 percent from the field and 39.4 percent from three. He should be able to build on that and increase his volume tonight.

Brandin Podziemski OVER 4.5 assists (-130) – 0.5 units

No Steph Curry and no Draymond Green for the Golden State Warriors means Brandin Podziemski will have the edge tonight against the Houston Rockets.

So far this season, Podziemski has played four games without Curry in action and is averaging 14.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game, playing at least 30 minutes in each match.

The Warriors guard has also received at least five assists in every game, including a six-assist game against these Rockets.

This season, Podziemski is averaging just 6.8 potential assists per game, but he should have a larger playmaking role as the Warriors’ primary ball handler with both Curry and Green sidelined.

Toronto Raptors +9 (-105) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – 0.5 units

This bet is not for the faint of heart, but I love the Toronto Raptors at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday.

The Raptors have been underdogs in all 10 home games this season, but they have won six straight and are 8-2 against the team.

There’s no doubt the team’s ceiling is higher with Scottie Barnes in the lineup, as the Raptors have gone 5-6 with the All-Star forward and 2-9 without him.

So are they underrated in this match?

OKC is certainly the superior team and is ranked No. 1 in the NBA in net rating this season, but has only beaten them 5-4 as away favorites.

The Thunder still have a net rating nearly seven points better than the Raptors in each team’s last 10 games, so this is still a difficult scenario for Toronto. Still, the Raptors took OKC to two overtimes in their first meeting since the Barrett-Quickley deal last season.

I think this game on Thursday will be closer than the oddsmakers think.

Odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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