Boeing’s space business could be unstoppable in 2025. Only one thing has to happen first.

But that could happen soon.

Through an interview with ULA CEO Tory Bruno earlier this month, Breaking Defense noted that ULA expects official certification for Vulcan “this month, next month (or the) next few months.” Crucially, Bruno noted that the FAA will not require ULA to conduct additional testing or fly additional test flights on Vulcan before receiving certification, suggesting that, at least in the CEO’s view, certification is essentially in the bag is.

And not a moment too soon.

In 2025, Boeing expects to be able to launch two US national security missions on Vulcan – but this requires certification. In total, ULA expects 20 launches next year, surpassing the previous ULA record for most launches in a year.

Production capacity won’t stop ULA from achieving this pace. ULA has 16 Vulcan rockets in its inventory, Bruno says, and Blue Origin is building engines fast enough to maintain a launch frequency of 26 Vulcan starts every year.

ULA is targeting 20 to 30 launches per year and expects about half of those launches to be for government and half for commercial purposes. Bruno notes that this is a “healthier” ratio than when he joined ULA in 2014, when he said “less than a quarter” of ULA’s launches were commercial. It could make ULA unstoppable even with competition from SpaceX.

However, is 50% a realistic number? I checked it. In 2013, exactly 0% of ULA’s launches were commercial. In 2014, only one in 14 launches – 7% – was commercial, suggesting that Bruno’s 50% commercial target may be a bit ambitious.

Other than that, the company does have a contract to launch 47 missiles Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN)which puts Kuiper internet satellites into orbit. This contract alone would put Bruno’s commercial launch target at 50% of 30 per year for three to four years.

It should guarantee ULA at least three good years once military certification is obtained. Whether ULA can maintain this pace even after the Amazon contract expires remains to be seen. Not all Companies are just as pressed for time as Amazon as the FCC sets a mid-2026 deadline for launching half of its satellites so the company doesn’t risk losing its license. Not all Companies will pay more for Vulcan launches when SpaceX’s Falcon 9 costs less.

But the Amazon deal should at least last long enough to give ULA a good start.

And 2025 is When it will all begin.

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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions on Amazon and recommends them. The Motley Fool recommends Lockheed Martin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Boeing’s space business could be unstoppable in 2025. Only one thing has to happen first. was originally published by The Motley Fool