BYU vs. Providence Preview: BYU prepares for its first true road game

BYU travels two zones for its only true non-conference road game when they play at Providence on Tuesday night as part of the Big 12-Big East battle. BYU has survived a split between Ole Miss and NC State, while Providence has faltered somewhat after losses in the Battle 4 Atlantis. The biggest storyline in this game is whether All-Big East forward Bryce Hopkins will make his season debut for the Friars.

BYU and Providence in numbers

Providence KenPom: 94

Record: 5-3

Wins: Central Connecticut, Stonehill, Hampton, Green Bay, Delaware State

Losses: Oklahoma, Davidson, Indiana

BYU KenPom: 34

Record: 6-1

Wins: Central Arkansas, UC Riverside, Queens, Idaho, Mississippi Valley State, NC State

Loss: Ole Miss

KenPom Prediction: BYU 72, Providence 68 – BYU 65% chance of winning

Spread: BYU -5.5

Total score: 143.5

Time: 8:30 ET

Channel: FS1

Providence Preview

After a 5-0 start against weak competition, the Friars lost three games in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament over Thanksgiving. They missed a crucial three-pointer in a 2-point loss to eventual champion Oklahoma and then suffered double-digit losses to both Davidson and Indiana.

Providence has good size at the 5th position, but they aren’t particularly big on the wings/defense and that was taken advantage of in the Bahamas. Providence was burned in the arena in all three losses, giving up 30+ points in all three games and losing by a combined 100-64 in the three games. Providence didn’t shoot the ball particularly well either, but to their credit they did a good job on offense. According to KenPom, they are among the top 25 offensive rebounders nationally and had more offensive rebounds than their opponents in all three Bahamas games (helped by many missed shots). Their guards and wings aren’t particularly tall, but they’re aggressive on the boards.

Perhaps the biggest question of the game is the status of senior forward Bryce Hopkins. Hopkins tore his ACL in early January and it’s been almost 11 months since surgery. Multiple national experts reported that Hopkins was expected to make his season debut in the Bahamas last week, and although he dressed, he has yet to play this season. Hopkins is a physical 6-foot-7 forward who was named First Team All-Big East as a 2022-2023 sophomore. This season, Hopkins averaged 16 points and 8 points while shooting 45% from the field. If he plays at the level he did before the injury, Providence can be a top-four team in the Big East and a tournament team. It’s still unclear whether he will play against BYU; Given the importance of this game for Providence, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make his season debut, although his effectiveness would be something to watch in his first game back.

Of the players who play safety, Providence scores the most points through its guards. 6-foot-2 guard Jayden Pierre is averaging 13.1 ppg and shooting 47% from three; he was 5-10 from three against Indiana and 4-8 against Davidson. Pierre averages less than two free throws per game and 60% of his attempts this season have come from long range, forcing BYU to keep him at the rim. He hasn’t been a guy in his career who can rush teams off the dribble, something BYU has really struggled with compared to Ole Miss guard Jaylen Murray.

Providence doesn’t get a lot of points from its bigs, but they have some size down low. Christ Essandoko is a force at 7 feet, 290 pounds, and freshman Oswin Erhunmwunse is more athletic at 6 feet, 10. The chess game to see how they play these bigs against BYU’s various bigs, Fouss and Keba Keita, will be interesting to watch. If Essandoko is ever in the same era as Keba, I would imagine BYU will attack that mercilessly in PNR situations.

forecast

Bryce Hopkins’ availability is the most important issue to watch in this game. If he’s healthy and at his best, he could single-handedly win the game in the Friars’ favor and give the crowd a little more energy. Even if he plays, it will be difficult for him to integrate seamlessly into Providence’s lineup. Even though they may have practiced with him, it’s difficult to find the right chemistry right away in a live situation.

Talent wise, I don’t think Providence is much (or at all) better than NC State. They have a roster with big men and some guards that can get hot, but aside from Hopkins, they don’t actually have any All-Big East-caliber players. It’s certainly difficult to win on the road, and Providence showed against Oklahoma that they can get hot from distance, but BYU simply has more offensive weapons and more talent than Providence, so I think they’ll pull out a road win.

Prediction: BYU 79, Providence 72

*Record straight up: 6-1

*Record against the spread: 5-2

* I make a prediction for every game and track my record over the course of the season