Cincinnati postseason scenarios - Cheztalalrestaurant

The Cincinnati Bengals’ playoff chances appeared to be extinguished after the team fell to 4-8 in a 44-38 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13.

Since then, the Bengals have gone on a three-game winning streak. While a trip to the NFL playoffs remains unlikely, Cincinnati faces a narrow path to the postseason.

The Bengals have no margin for error to make the playoffs. They’ll also need help from several teams at the bottom of the AFC to fight their way to the No. 7 seed.

How slim are the Bengals’ playoff chances? Here’s what they need to get to the postseason.

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Bengals playoff chances

According to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model, the Bengals have a 5% chance of making the playoffs. This is the slimmest chance of any NFL team in the playoff hunt.

Bengals playoff odds

The Athletic’s model is a bit more pessimistic about the Bengals than BetMGM Sportsbook. BetMGM lists Cincinnati at +1000 odds for the postseason. This gives the Bengals an implied probability of 9.09% of qualifying for the playoffs.

Either way, the path for the Bengals to reach the postseason is narrow. They don’t have much room for error as they look to overcome another slow start and return to the playoffs after missing them last season.

What needs to happen for the Bengals to make the playoffs?

The Bengals need four things to make the playoffs. They are as follows:

This is the only path the Bengals have to the playoffs.

Bengals remaining schedule

The good news for the Bengals is that they can control at least some of their own destiny. They face the Broncos in Week 17, so a win against Denver would help Cincinnati in two areas.

In Week 18, the Bengals will play a tough division game against the Steelers. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 44-38 in their first meeting, but enters the final week on a three-game losing streak.

Cincinnati’s last two opponents have a combined record of 19-12. Their combined winning percentage of .613 gives the Bengals the 10th toughest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.

Below is a complete overview of Cincinnati’s schedule:

Broncos remaining schedule

More good news for the Bengals: The Broncos have a tough finish to the 2024 NFL season. Denver has the third-toughest schedule remaining, according to Tankathon, as the Broncos face Cincinnati and then get a Week 18 date with the 15-1 Kansas City Chiefs must.

The only question is whether the Chiefs, who secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed on Christmas, will play with their starters heading into the final week. If not, that could open the door for the Broncos to win and make the postseason.

Andy Reid’s squad could sense a chance to knock a division rival out of the postseason race if the Broncos lose to the Bengals. If that’s the case, the Chiefs could be ready to play and help lead Denver to two straight losses.

Below is a complete overview of Denver’s schedule:

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Colts remaining schedule

This is where things get problematic for the Bengals. The Colts have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. They play the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a combined record of 5-25, in the final two weeks of the season.

The Colts are expected to be favorites in both games. If they can win and the Broncos fail, they will be in the playoffs against the Bengals.

Below is a complete overview of Indianapolis’ schedule:

Dolphins remaining schedule

Even if the Bengals get lucky and the Colts find a way to lose one of their final two games, Cincinnati would also have to lose Miami to the Cleveland Browns or New York Jets. This schedule is the fifth easiest in the league.

The good news for the Bengals is that both games are on the road. The Dolphins don’t typically play well in cold weather, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they lost either of these two games, especially when the weather is bad.

Below is a complete look at Miami’s schedule:

Potential playoff opponents for the Bengals

The Bengals can only be the No. 7 seed in the 2024 NFL playoffs. This means there are only two possible opponents they could face. They are as follows:

The Bills have control of the No. 2 seed in the postseason and can wrap it up with a win in Week 17 against the Jets. With that in mind, Zac Taylor can start preaching about a possible trip to Buffalo as he tries to coach Cincinnati to an unlikely playoff spot.

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AFC playoff picture week 17

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winner, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winner)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winner)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, Wild Card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (9-6, Wild Card No. 2)
Denver Broncos (9-6, Wild Card No. 3)

On the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8), Cincinnati Bengals (7-8).

NFC

Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
Los Angeles Rams (9-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, Wild Card No. 1)*
Green Bay Packers (11-4, Wild Card No. 2)
Washington Commanders (10-5, Wildcard No. 3)

On the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

An asterisk

denotes teams that have secured a spot in the playoffs. Teams that won division titles are marked accordingly.

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