College Football Playoffs: Ranking potential first-round upsets

A few days before the start of the College Football Playoff, the rankings are almost as notable for those who aren’t there — perennial power Alabama, reigning national champion Michigan — as for those who are. More teams and more games mean more opportunities for surprises. Since there are “only” 12 teams in this group, there isn’t really room for Cinderella in this big dance… but that doesn’t mean there won’t be chaos.

Sure, the odds in all four games in the first round favor the higher-seeded home teams with at least one touchdown. But as Vanderbilt, Northern Illinois, Georgia Tech and many others have shown this season, the limit is just a number. There could well be a first-round upset in the first four games this year; Who could it be? We rank the disgruntled candidates from most to least likely.

Line: Penn State -8.5

The potential: Yes, SMU saved its season and playoff spot with a frantic attack in the fourth quarter of the ACC Championship. But those 15 minutes, not the anemic 45 before, were emblematic of SMU’s entire season: full throttle, no brakes, no margin for error and no mistakes made. Don’t let the Mustangs’ last-second entry into the CFP field fool you. This is an incredibly opportunistic team with the ability to put points on the scoreboard in bunches. Their scoring average of 38.5 points per game ranks sixth in the FBS, and as Clemson can attest, you’ve never really let them down until you knock them out of the game.

There’s also the intangible factor: Under James Franklin, Penn State is a team that constantly suffers from underperformance. So how will the Nittany Lions fare under the pressure that the CFP will bring? Will the State College crowd suffer from jitters if Penn State falls behind early? The potential drama looming over the home line is too great to ignore in this or any possible future game.

Line: Notre Dame -7.5

The potential: In a sense, Indiana has already won the Battle of the Hoosier State by forcing Notre Dame to acknowledge its existence. On the other hand, Indiana faces a daunting challenge: overcoming any concerns about the weakness of its schedule. Yes, the Hoosiers had good vibes all season, but they only faced one notable opponent – Ohio State – and that didn’t go well.

Still, look at the numbers. Yes, according to ESPN metrics, Indiana’s schedule strength is 67th. But Notre Dame is only six spots higher. The Irish beat four top-25 teams… but none finished higher than 15th. This could amount to a defensive battle; Indiana ranks second in yards allowed per game, while Notre Dame ranks eighth. Both teams are playing with house money here given their recent (and, in Indiana’s case, overall) history, but the team with more to lose can often play much tighter, regardless of what the line says.

Line: Ohio State -7.5

The potential: Speaking of losing more… Ryan Day may just be training for his job in these playoffs. Luckily for him, the team he can’t beat isn’t even there this year. Luckily for him, Ohio State could still be the team to beat in the playoffs given how much talent the Buckeyes have across the board. Combine that with temperatures expected to be around 20°C in Columbus, and Tennessee faces a major challenge.

The Volunteers offensively live and die by Dylan Sampson’s legs, and both their points-per-game and yards-per-game defensive stats rank in the top five in the FBS. Your problem: Ohio State ranks first in both categories. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava has the big-play potential to rally his team — watch him pick apart Alabama in the second half of a crucial game for both teams — but he needs to start producing before the third quarter so Tennessee can keep up with the Buckeyes. This is the closest matchup by seeding, but this game could see Tennessee get away very quickly.

Line: Texas -12

The potential: Below average vs. unproven. Texas lost twice to the only notable team it played all season. Clemson worked its way backwards to the ACC Championship, then took advantage of an uncharacteristically overwhelmed SMU to win a win-or-lose playoff game.

The Tigers were a pale orange shadow of their old victories as national championship winners. Clemson has Cade Klubnik…and not much else. Unfortunately for Clemson, Texas has the best pass defense in the country, which will hinder the Tigers’ key weapons. If Clemson gets out early, they will have a hard time climbing out of the hole. What works in Clemson’s favor, however, is the fact that Klubnik has more big-game potential than Texas’ Quinn Ewers. (The two battled in a high school state championship game in 2020; Klubnik emerged victorious in that game.) If Clemson can upset Ewers and Texas doesn’t turn to Arch Manning in crisis mode, the Tigers could pull off the biggest upset of the first Round. Yes, we say there is a chance.