Corbin Burnes will not be an Oriole in 2025

Good morning Birdland!

The year is almost over, but it has saved one of its biggest disappointments for the last few days. The Orioles’ 2024 star will pitch for another team in 2025. Overnight, news broke that Corbin Burnes had agreed to a six-year, $210 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, ending any chances of a reunion in Baltimore.

The binary result of “Orioles not signing Burnes” is not surprising. Mike Elias has made it pretty clear that he doesn’t like spending large amounts of money in free agency, especially on pitchers. He has taken a different stance, saying the team would be “in” with anyone the front office believes will improve the team. Burnes certainly would have done that. It would also have been expensive.

It’s a shock to see the Diamondbacks be the ones handing out such a contract. They were never actually mentioned as a landing spot for Burnes throughout the entire process. But they haven’t shied away from starting pitchers lately, paying out a total of $127.5 million to Eduardo Rodríguez and Jordan Montgomery just a year ago. Burnes, of course, has a very different level of spending.

Since the news is just being released, the contract details are unclear. The AAV is $35 million through 2030, and Burnes has an opt-out after the 2026 season. But no one has yet indicated whether there are significant deferred funds or whether the contract is weighted in any direction. If all years are equal and Burnes is so successful over the next two years, it would probably be better if he left after 1926, but that remains to be seen.

If the Orioles were ever really interested in spending like that, they missed out anyway. They now have to look elsewhere for rotation help. Dylan Cease could be available. The Mariners are always looking for a deal and have plenty of weapons. Framber Valdez is reportedly on the block, although the trade to the Astros always feels like a prank. Funnily enough, the Dbacks would probably trade Montgomery for any kind of salary relief at this point. It was terrible in 2025, so buyers should beware in that case.

This all assumes Elias and the front office even believe the Orioles need more impact starters.

What I mean by that is that Elias and his crew could believe they were contributing to the 2025 rotation last summer when they traded for Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers. Burnes’ departure was pretty predictable, so they hedged their bets on having the guys under control for 2025. Eflin was great. Rogers stunk, but is also younger and in control for 2026.

If that’s their mindset, one could understand whether they’re comfortable going into the season as is, especially if they also believe Kyle Bradish will be back late in the season. In this scenario there is no need to add an ace. You have someone in the house who just needs to get better.

I’m not saying you should agree to this way of thinking! In fact, I think this team needs another reliable starter that you can easily use in the playoffs. But Elias clearly has his principles, and they don’t include spending tons of money on pitchers. That always meant Burnes probably wouldn’t return. A trade of some significance is (hopefully) still on the table.

Left

Playing with Orioles lineups | Smelled Kubatko
Trying out lineups is fun! I would vehemently disagree with Roch’s decision to bat Tyler O’Neill at third against right-handed pitchers. That’s not his strength. Plus, the Orioles need a damn leadoff hitter. Gunnar is great, but he should keep up with the guys on base. Hopefully Jackson Holliday can grow into this role as the season progresses.

Orioles 2024 review: 9 storylines from a season full of hope and disappointment | The Baltimore Banner
It’s truly been a wild year for the Orioles. So many monumental things happened. It would have been cool if there had been a playoff win.

1 stat every team can marvel at from the 2024 season | MLB.com
If it’s written by Sarah Langs, you know I’m reading it. You should too. She also posted this recent factoid.

Orioles birthdays

Is it your birthday? Happy Birthday!

• Bill Hall turns 45 today. He played in seven games for the Orioles in 2012 and appeared on an episode of The Young and the Restless (alongside JJ Hardy) in 2007.
• BJ Ryan is 49. The left-hander played in Baltimore for seven years from 1999 to 2005. By the end of his time, he was a dominant closer, starting 36 games in 2005. The Blue Jays signed a then-record contract for a reliever the following offseason (five years, $47 million).
• Ray Knight is 72 years old. A long-time MLB infielder, Knight spent the 1987 season in Baltimore and accumulated 0.5 bWAR for the season.
• The late one Aurelio Rodriguez (b. 1947, d. 2000) was born on this day. He spent 17 years in the major leagues, appearing in 45 games of that career with the 1983 Orioles. The veteran infielder struggled at the plate in Baltimore (.119/.130/.119), but provided solid defense before he was released in August of the same year.

This day in history

2005 – The Orioles and free-agent outfielder Jeromy Burnitz agreed to a two-year deal, but it was never signed. Days later, Burnitz’s agents claimed that the mishap was due to language in the contract regarding a physical exam, while the Orioles believe Burnitz simply changed his mind.