Could the Syrian rebels usher in a new dawn in a country shattered by civil war?

CNN
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The red, white, green and black flag of the Free Syrian Army flew over Damascus on Sunday as thousands of residents lined the main square in bursts of defiant cheer – after President Bashar al-Assad gave up power.

Over the past 11 days, a rebel alliance has stormed across Syria in the boldest challenge to Assad’s rule in years – after decades of brutal rule by the Assad dynasty marked by fighting, bloodshed and repressive political repression.

“This is a significant moment, not only for the Syrian people, but also for the people of the Middle East, Lebanese, Palestinians, Syrians and elsewhere,” Firas Maksad, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, told CNN on Sunday.

“This is a regime that has oppressed, tortured and disappeared many millions in Syria for over 50 years under the mantra of freedom, unity and socialism.”

Now, as the anti-regime coalition begins to dismantle Assad’s military and lays out its vision for a post-Assad Syria, experts are wondering whether the next phase will be a new beginning for a people strangled by a brutal autocracy – or whether sectarianism will be do will bring a different kind of authoritarian rule.

Syria’s armed opposition ultimately plans to form an institutionally defined government and a “popularly elected council,” Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the militant figure driving the rebels’ latest uprising, told CNN. He leads the dominant group in the coalition, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate.

Jolani declared victory for the “entire Islamic nation” on Sunday in his first public comments since the rebel-led coup, which he said “marks a new chapter in the region’s history.”

“Syria will be cleansed by the grace of God Almighty and the efforts of the heroic mujahideen,” Jolani told a crowd at the majestic Umayyad Mosque in Damascus. He denounced “Iranian ambitions” in Syria, where Tehran and its proxy Hezbollah are the Assad government’s main backers.

“My heart longed for this moment,” Jolani added. “There is not a single household in Syria that the war has not touched.”

Before armed fighters launched a stunning offensive last month, Assad’s stranglehold had divided Syrian territory between regime and rebel forces – some of which are backed by international powers such as the United States and Turkey.

What emerged on November 27 was the Militant Operations Command, a spectrum of militias bound together by a common goal – to liberate government-controlled areas and depose the president. Jolani had told CNN that if opposition forces succeed in overthrowing Assad, they will “form a state with governance, institutions, etc.”

Shortly after southern rebels captured Damascus, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Al-Jalali pledged in a recorded message to work with the rebels and support “a smooth and systematic handover of government functions” and preserve “state facilities.”

Jolani reiterated a similar memo, saying all public facilities would remain under the prime minister’s jurisdiction “until they are officially handed over.” Syrian rebels also claimed that senior regime officials were preparing to defect to them in Damascus.

But delegating a new system of government will be “extremely challenging” for a “diverse coalition” of armed fighters, according to Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst at the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group.

“Some groups are more structured and organized, including (HTS) and some of its allies,” he told CNN on Sunday, while others are “more local entities.”

The further the rebels advanced, the stronger Jolani’s charm offensive became. The militant leader, who emerged as a young al-Qaeda fighter against the United States in Iraq, has sought to erase the shadow of his extremist roots.

The United States declared HTS a foreign terrorist organization in 2018 and put a $10 million bounty on Jolani’s head.

Millions of Syrians, including members of Christian minorities and other religious communities, are haunted by a history of persecution at the hands of extremist groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS. Human rights activists accuse HTS and other anti-regime groups of cracking down on residents and torturing and mistreating dissidents in the areas they control – including northwest Idlib, western Homs and Aleppo governorates.

Jolani told CNN that abuses in prisons “did not occur on our orders or instructions” and that HTS had already punished the perpetrators.

“Anti-government armed groups have promised restraint and adherence to humanitarian norms, but they are ultimately judged by their behavior, not their words,” Adam Coogle, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement on December 4 .

Speaking on state television on Sunday, a Syrian rebel commander insisted that “all sects” would be protected, adding: “Syria is for everyone, without exception…Syria is for the Sunnis, the Druze, the Alawites.”

Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, warned that the fall of the Assad regime could be a “moment of potential danger” for minority communities in the country, including religious groups such as Alawites, Ismailis, Druze and Christians.

“There are concerns about the more Islamist-jihadist elements of this rebel force,” he said, particularly with regard to Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the country’s main armed opposition group, which has been designated a terrorist group by the US and many other countries,” said Maksad.

But on the streets of Syria, such concerns were eclipsed by scenes of excitement and mass celebrations. Thousands of people gathered at the foot of the main square in Damascus, where rebels ransacked Assad’s residence.

“After the fear in which he (Assad) and his father made us live for years, and the panic and state of terror in which I lived, I can’t believe it,” Omar Daher, a 29-year-old lawyer, told Associated Press.

Another Damascus resident, Mohammed Amer Al-Oulabi, 44, said: “From Idlib to Damascus, thank God it only took them (the opposition forces) a few days.” May God bless them, the heroic lions who made us proud have.”

And further afield, Syrian refugees fleeing war shared their hopes of returning to a peaceful country.

“We thank our people in Syria and the free people who saved us from injustice,” Wissam Ahmed, a displaced Syrian in Lebanon, told Reuters on Sunday. “We are going to Syria, God willing, to rebuild our future and our homes. The feeling is really great, we can’t describe it better.”

This story has been updated with additional developments.