Cubs outlook after Cody Bellinger-Kyle Tucker trade: “We’re not done yet”

At midday Tuesday, Chicago Cubs president Jed Hoyer said, “We’re not done yet” and looked forward to building around Kyle Tucker, the biggest acquisition during his time leading the club’s baseball operations. Within hours, the Cubs traded former MVP Cody Bellinger to the New York Yankees.

There are no delays in Hoyer’s front office this winter.

Maximizing Tucker’s final season before he can become a free agent is a priority. That urgency could ultimately lead to the Cubs offering him the largest contract in franchise history and the chance to finish his career at Wrigley Field. But after making a series of deals, the Cubs are more focused on the immediate impact.

More money goes to the Cubs pitching staff

The disappointing return in the Bellinger trade can’t be fully assessed until we see how the Cubs reallocate their resources and where their major league payroll ends up next season.

The Cubs welcomed Cody Poteet, a 30-year-old right-hander with 24 major league appearances on his resume, and donated $5 million to cover part of Bellinger’s salary. Bellinger could make $32.5 million in 2025 if he opts out of his contract after the season. Hoyer is obsessed with depth, but he felt the money could be better spent elsewhere.

The Cubs are already covered at Bellinger’s primary positions (first base/outfield), and Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have full no-trade clauses. Tucker assumes the role of new Gold Glove right fielder at Wrigley Field. Suzuki now appears as a regular batsman, a role he doesn’t seem to prefer, so things could still get awkward.

According to FanGraphs, the Cubs’ estimated luxury tax payroll is currently nearly $192 million, although it is unclear how close the baseball operations budget will be to the $241 million threshold. Trading Bellinger creates more flexibility to add another starting pitcher and explore a bullpen market that has been much slower to develop.

Cubs first baseman Michael Busch isn’t going anywhere for now. (Katie Stratman/Imagn Images)

Bellinger’s move further solidifies the Cubs’ commitment to Michael Busch, whose strong rookie season was worth 2.8 wins above replacement, according to Baseball-Reference. The Los Angeles Dodgers traded Busch for a rookie last winter because he couldn’t provide consistent offense on this star-studded team. Busch played multiple positions at the University of North Carolina and in the Dodgers’ farm system, but the Cubs don’t plan on letting him bounce around the infield.

“We really see Michael as a Gold Glove first baseman,” Hoyer said. “That is our focus. Can he move a little? Of course, its versatility is great. But first he made real progress. After the first month of the season, he was initially fantastic. And that’s exactly how we see him.”

Matt Shaw has the inside track at third base

Top Cubs prospect Matt Shaw emerges as winner after Tucker deal. With Isaac Paredes traded to the Houston Astros, the Cubs now have a chance at third base. There will be some competition, but the Cubs expect Shaw to make another leap.

“We’ll take a close look at third place for him,” Hoyer said. “It’s really important to make space for young players. He has to earn this job. I’m not going to give him this job on a conference call in mid-December. But given what he’s done in the minor leagues since we’ve had him, his arrow is really pointing up.”

Shaw was the No. 13 pick in the 2023 draft out of the University of Maryland. Since then, he has posted a .906 OPS in 159 games with four different affiliates. Cubs manager Craig Counsell has already shown a keen eye for developing young talent during his time with the Milwaukee Brewers, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is a good example of how the team could do it.

“Just like last year with PCA, you have to give young players some leeway,” Hoyer said. “Obviously it’s not always linear, as we’ve discussed. But in any case you have to allow talented young players to bat. And Matt has definitely put himself in a position to be considered for something like that.”

The farm system is available for other trades

Even after the trade of Cam Smith to the Astros, the Cubs still have seven prospects in MLB.com’s top 100. Owen Caissie (No. 34) and James Triantos (No. 55) are two names that have been featured prominently in trade rumors.

Although Hoyer is entering his own contract year and operating at a different pace than the previous offseason, it would be out of character for him to completely empty the farm system. He is an experienced, conscious and long-term thinking manager.

Under Hoyer’s leadership, the Cubs have also focused more heavily on an analytics-based model for evaluating players. The “Ivy” database can contain ratings that lead to different ideas for building a 90-win team on paper.

The Cubs have been in discussions with the Miami Marlins about Jesús Luzardo, a talented left-handed pitcher who has an extensive medical history and two more seasons leading the club.

“Everything is a one-time decision,” Hoyer said. “Does this make us better now? What does this mean for the future? This is a constant balance. I don’t think you make a deal and say that it will ban a bunch of other deals. But everything happens together. You have to figure all these things out and make this decision. The goal is to be a better team next year. But the goal is certainly not to be good until next year.”

(Top photo by Cody Poteet: Denny Medley / Imagn Images)