Debunked: Examining the NHL Savings Rate Decline

VANCOUVER — Andrei Vasilevskiy has an interesting theory about the continued decline in NHL save percentage and how it’s making the challenge more of a mental battle for the Tampa Bay Lightning’s top goaltender and his puck-stopping colleagues.

When Vasilevskiy was asked this week if the league-wide save percentage was .901, which would be its lowest in 19 seasons, his initial answer wasn’t about how much younger and better the shooters are or how much more dynamic the offensive opportunities are they were created, they became.

While Vasilevskiy referenced each factor, the first thing the 2019 Vezina Trophy winner highlighted was how much fewer easy shots goalies now have.

“I feel like guys aren’t wasting shots anymore,” Vasilevskiy told NHL.com. “You know, when I came into the league (2014-15), it was 30 or 35 or more shots per game. It was almost every night, you had a good feeling about your game, you were there the whole time. Nowadays guys don’t waste shots anymore. It’s the quality that matters. They all strive for the perfect game, the perfect pass, the perfect shot.”

The save percentage has declined since peaking at .915 in 2014-15 and 2015-16 and reached its lowest point in 18 years at .903 last season. That’s the lowest mark since a .901 mark in the 2005-2006 season, which came after the canceled 2004-05 season led to smaller goaltending equipment and new rules to reduce defensive interference, and the continued decline could soon see the figure hit below .900 since 1995. 96.

While most of the attention on the decline in save percentage has focused on the influx of young shooters who have followed the established goaltending model and worked with position-specific skills coaches in the offseason, the way in which these players are developing these increasingly dynamic skills use, an issue that has contributed to making life more difficult for goalkeepers. Players and teams use analytics to determine which scoring opportunities are most likely. With this better understanding of how to best score, more goaltender shots appear to be more dangerous, with an emphasis on lateral plays in the middle of the ice that force goaltenders to turn completely from side to side .

As awareness of what types of plays lead to goals has increased, so has awareness of what shots don’t lead to goals, and the number of these easy shots has decreased.

“In my opinion, it’s all these young players who are extremely talented and they know that if you shoot on net without traffic, the goalie will catch it, and then what?” Vasilevskiy said. “Whistle, the play is dead and no one will pat you on the back for it.”

Since Thursday’s start, shots per game in the NHL this season have fallen to 57.4 from 60.6 last season and have reached a five-season high of 63.3 in 2021-22. As for the question, to what extent is this overall decline due to a decline in the easier shots that Vasilevskiy was talking about? In the four seasons in which NHL EDGE data has tracked long-range shots, the league’s average save percentage per game is 0.970. The number of long-range shots has increased from 14.9 in the 2021-22 season to 12.81 this season (game starts on Thursday).

Of course, not all shots from further out are the same. Part of the increased focus on the types of shots that result in goals is due to the increase in targeted traffic in front of the goalie. And again, back to Vasilevskiy’s point: With this knowledge, the number of unchecked shots from the perimeter has decreased.

Former NHL goalie Steve Valiquette, who founded Clear Sight Analytics and works as a television analyst for New York Rangers broadcasts on MSG, reported the number of unchecked shots – he calls them clear-sight shots because the goalie can see the go-ahead Long-range shooting has declined 27.9 percent over the last six seasons, and the number of shots from outside the slot has decreased 20.8 percent.

Some teams consider these types of shots a loss of possession, trading free possession of the puck for the chance to win it back on the ensuing faceoff.

“Vasilevskiy is spot on,” said John Healy, who is chief operating officer at Clear Sight Analytics and also works one-on-one with NHL forwards and defensemen on how to best create offense. “We stopped taking these clear-eyed shots.”

When goalies block fewer shots 97 percent of the time and take more shots 20 to 40 percent of the time, it’s no wonder the save rate drops.

“It’s definitely a very interesting perspective and I have to agree with it,” St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington said of Vasilevskiy’s theory. “It’s just not wasted shots. This is the new age mindset. A lot of our team meetings are just about how to score, how to score, not just about putting pucks in the net.”

Beyond the statistical decline, this mindset poses a greater mental challenge for goalkeepers, many of whom prefer games when they are busier.

“You stay on the blue team and wait for something to happen, and you have a lot of energy and thought, and it’s not a perfect scenario,” said Vasilevskiy, who does the pattern of goal-line moves during TV timeouts and controls the puck more, to stay committed. “When you don’t have any shots you think about how you want to play instead of playing the game, but when you have a lot of shots you don’t think about it, you just play, so of course it’s a lot easier.”

And seeing fewer of the simpler shots isn’t the case.