December 9th 4:30pm Weather Forecast Update – A wild ridge ahead of big temperature swings, lots of wind, snow, rain and cold pattern suddenly turning warm…… | News

We are in a cold pattern not seen this time of year since 1976. However, yesterday’s 53-59 and today’s 50-55 are the exception, with a wild swing back to warmer weather.

However, another major shift is underway.

Several players are on the field as the first system passed last night – this morning, with 0.10 to 0.55 inches (lightest northwest, heaviest central White to central Cass County) of precipitation over the area. This front is over, but it really isn’t. Behind it there is more of a mild Pacific front.

The second front is approaching and will make us cooler tomorrow, but the Arctic front with its strong low pressure and the wave that will ride up this front is bringing wind and snow to parts of the Midwest, Southeast and Eastern US

From tonight into tomorrow there will be quite a bit of cloud cover (mostly cloudy skies), with some sunshine at times over our area.

Highs of 35-41 are expected tomorrow, with some windy weather coming from the northwest (after 29-35 AM).

Note the wave rolling up the front Tuesday night-Wednesday morning with a band of accumulating snow southeast of here. Some data suggests this band of snow is forming further northwest to near our southeastern counties. However, the current trend is to miss this area, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

The southeast to mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States will experience severe weather and higher to well above normal temperatures

The Northeast will experience a series of storms, flooding precipitation and strong winds with very strong low pressure (the wave will deepen to 990 MB!), while there will be heavy, wind-driven snowfall from Ontario to West Virginia.

We’re looking at intermittent snow showers and snow squalls on Wednesday, which will be strongest between 3:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. Wednesday

Accumulation of 1 inch or less is possible with some slippery areas developing and strong west-northwest to west winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph Wednesday. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph may occur in places Wednesday evening.

Any snow, 0.3″, 0.5″, 1″ will blow around as temperatures drop from the 20s to single digits.

Lows of 0 to 9 and wind chills of -14 to -3 are expected through Thursday morning.

Highs of 14-20°C are expected on Thursday, but after lows of 5-10°C on Thursday, we will rise to 34-40°F on Friday with strong southerly winds.

This storm system will turn skies cloudy and then bring rain.

There is a chance of showers on Friday evening, then it will rain.

On Saturday we will warm back up to the 44-50 range.

Another short-lived wave of precipitation is coming Sunday with highs of 48-55.

The wind in both systems is blowing strongly from the south to southwest.

A total rainfall of 0.50 to 0.80 inches is possible between the two systems.

We need to watch for possible snowfall on Wednesday and/or Wednesday evening next week.

This appears to be a clipper system, or a clipper system that then merges with a southern system. Regardless, we will be mindful of the risk of snow on colder climbs (although not excessive).

After that, the big weather story is warmth! Temperatures are rising well above normal as we approach Christmas.

The upcoming Christmas season brings with it strong south to southwest winds with wind speeds of 50 to 60 degrees. All teleconnections support this long-term concept for my winter forecast. With warm stratosphere, cold wave on the other side of the globe and cold stratosphere and warmth here on the surface.

A shower or two and even a few storms are possible near Christmas.

At the moment it looks like possible highs of 58-64 on Christmas Eve and 52-57 on Christmas Day.

If everything stays as it is, a pocket of even severe weather risks could develop in the corridor from Arkansas to southeast Missouri, southern Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee. The warm, moist MJO certainly supports this considering similar patterns and similar phases this time of year.

However, after rainfall, watch for a blast of arctic air around New Year’s Day and then another surge following that.

According to my long term forecast and now with some very nebulous modeling, there is evidence of a few bouts of snow in the first 10 days of January.

Long-term data shows a snowpack of 2 to 6 inches about a week in January.

It still appears that mid-January will be mild with above-average temperatures.

However, it is likely that two main passages of Arctic air will occur in late January to early February, with the deepest snowpack and coldest air of the winter.

A “ridge bridge” (bitter cold bridge between northern Asia and North America) and a polar vortex event may lead to low temperatures of -21 to -14 °C over the area.

This early February looks bitterly cold and snowy, but after the cold it should warm up towards the end of February and we are actually looking mild, with rain and some flooding with ice jams over time.