Does Dayton have a chance at a white Christmas this year?

DAYTON, Ohio (WDTN) – There have been 23 white Christmases in Dayton since records began measuring snow depth in 1943. Will we see one this year?

Since we have had 23 white Christmases, the probability that it will snow on Christmas morning is mathematically 28.5 percent.

The requirements for a white Christmas are simple.

“A white Christmas is defined as having an inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. on Christmas Day,” said John Franks, NWS meteorologist for Wilmington.

The last white Christmas was two years ago, with colder temperatures below freezing and 3 inches of snow in the days leading up to Christmas.

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While the last two white Christmases in Dayton occurred during La Niña years, the chance of a white Christmas doesn’t necessarily depend on that – it depends primarily on where the jet stream is near the end of December.

“If you have an enhanced jet stream, you’re going to have more storm tracks like this and deeper lows and more precipitation in one place, less precipitation in another,” Franks said.

In the last five years, three Christmas Days had high temperatures in the 60s, but the other two were in the teens, showing how changeable the weather can be in December. As we enter winter, the jet stream moves south, while cold temperatures begin to move south after summer.

“If you’re in the 60s, the temperature is 20 to 25 degrees above normal. So that would mean you’re generally going to be under a higher pressure ridge and pretty steep pressure over that period of time,” Franks said. “And then when the temperature is, you know, 16 degrees below normal, you’re in a pretty big low point at that point.”

There is some uncertainty regarding forecast temperatures for Christmas week, but the Climate Prediction Center believes there is a slightly higher chance of above-average temperatures in the Miami Valley.

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