Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures take a pause in the countdown to consumer inflation data

Small business optimism skyrocketed following Donald Trump’s election victory.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose eight points to 101.7 in November, marking the largest monthly increase since 1980. The index is now at its highest level since June 2021 and is above its 50-year average of 98 for the first time almost three years.

““The election results signal a major shift in economic policy and lead to a surge in optimism among small business owners,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said in the release. “Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions after the election, breaking a nearly three-year streak of record-breaking uncertainty. The owners are particularly hoping for tax and regulatory policies that promote strong economic growth and relief from inflationary pressures. Additionally, small business owners are looking to expand their operations.”

A surge in small business optimism has been a theme seen in Trump’s first presidency, and some strategists are optimistic about companies that will benefit from small business sales in 2025.

“We expect an improving small business operating environment to boost small business sentiment and spending in 2025, and boost earnings and valuations of stocks with income tied to those spending,” wrote David Kostin, chief U.S. strategist. Stocks at Goldman Sachs, in its 2025 Stock Outlook.

Kostin recommended a basket of 60 medium and large companies with at least 50% of their revenue tied to small businesses. The largest stocks in this space include: Meta (META), Deere & Company (DE), Intuit (INTU) and Shopify (SHOP).