Emirates NBA Cup Championship preview: Thunder, Bucks and a prediction

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LAS VEGAS — An easy way to classify this Emirates NBA Cup final is age and experience. The Milwaukee Bucks consist of a core of veterans, All-Stars and NBA championship ring holders. The Oklahoma City Thunder are young and up-and-coming and on track to secure the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference for the second straight year after emerging from nowhere for three seasons (64 games under .500 overall).

But backstories and life cycles won’t matter much when the ball goes up at T-Mobile Arena on Tuesday (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

There’s a trophy to win, a fat payout for the losers ($205,988 per player) and an even bigger trophy ($514,971) for the winners. And a result that, while it doesn’t factor into the regular season rankings, could serve as a good gut check now and the impetus for something bigger next spring.

“It just comes down to one game and that’s it,” Milwaukee guard Damian Lillard said Monday. “I don’t think anyone, at least not with us, sees it like, ‘Oh, we’re old and stuff and they’re young.'”

The same goes for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from Oklahoma City.

“To be completely honest, I don’t differentiate games based on who I’m playing against,” he said. “When we play against the worst team in the league, against the best team in the league, I try to take their heads off.”

That is the spirit. The Thunder and Bucks are two of the hottest teams in the league at 12-3 in their last 15 games. The Bucks’ Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo are strong early MVP candidates for Kia and could also secure the tournament’s MVP honor with a win.

How the Thunder have done so far in the NBA Cup

OKC was the same team in the Cup as it had been through the first eight weeks of the season, finishing eighth in offense, first in defense and first in net rating. It raced through a generally weak Group B West, beating the Lakers, Jazz and Kevin Durant/Bradley Beal-less Suns.

But the knockout rounds offered tests with Dallas and Houston, and the Thunder aced both. They are missing Chet Holmgren (hip fracture) on the pitch but have not given up; After an 8-2 loss to Holmgren, they are 12-3 in his absence.

The Thunder makes the difference

Shai Gilgeous Alexander: He increased his scoring average in the Cup game, averaging 32.2 points with 6.2 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game while posting a shooting percentage of 50-40-90 in these six games. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 39 points on 15-for-23 shooting in the quarterfinals to eliminate Dallas, then scored 32 points in the semifinals against Houston.

Isaiah Hartenstein: The team’s new big man was invaluable as he averaged 11.5 ppg on 54.1% shooting and posted 11 rpg with 2.8 bpg in Cup games. He has won over Thunder teammates with his screens, passes and disregard for individual recognition, helping them to a 9-1 record since his injury-hit start to the season.

How the Bucks have done so far in the NBA Cup game

The Cup came at just the right time for Milwaukee, which started the season 2-8 and was desperate, if not desperate, for renewed focus. The Bucks’ 11th game was their Cup opener against Toronto, which began a 9-1 streak.

Through consistent shooting and more aggressive defense, Milwaukee has improved to seventh in offense, fifth in defense and second in net scoring in Cup play, compared to 11th, 13th and 14th overall. They have only had veteran winger Khris Middleton in action for four rusty games with limited playing time after he missed the first 21 due to offseason ankle surgery.

Making a difference for the Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo: “The Greek Freak” posted better points (32.7 ppg) and shots (61.4%) than in his two Kia MVP seasons. He’s a fearsome force on both ends (3.8 blocks/steals in the Cup game) and with 23, he’s two games shy of the NBA record for most consecutive games with at least 20 points at 50% accuracy or better.

Damian Lillard: The point guard has also increased his performance in the Cup and is averaging 28.2 ppg compared to 25.7 ppg overall. He and Antetokounmpo are the highest scoring tandem in the NBA, combining for 58.4 points per game. Gilgeous-Alexander and teammate Jalen Williams rank fourth with 52.4 ppg.

Head-to-head record

This is the teams’ first meeting this season. Their two regular season meetings are scheduled for February 3rd in OKC and March 16th in Milwaukee. Last season they broke up a couple. The last time was April 12, when the Bucks lost on the Thunder’s court without Antetokounmpo or Lillard.

But OKC coach Mark Daigneault felt the Thunder’s March 24 loss at Fiserv Forum was crucial for his young team.

“They really did it to us and it was a great game for us,” Daigneault said. “For us it was like water in the face. … It really showed us the level of physicality, focus and everything it takes to win against a good team.”

forecast

Dollar. Since this game is in Las Vegas, we’ll note that the oddsmakers had the Thunder as 4.5-point favorites heading into Monday night. Both teams are equally hot – OKC is rolling, Milwaukee is finishing a lot of close games – and the two superstars are as good as it gets. As a sidekick, Lillard is capable of outperforming everyone else, while Thunder forward Williams is a bit like Scottie Pippen. Here’s a wrinkle that could make the difference: Milwaukee makes a lot of threes (38.9% accuracy), while Oklahoma City gives up a lot (44.6% of opponents’ shots come from beyond the arc). If it’s a make night instead of a miss night, Milwaukee prevails.

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Steve Aschburner has been writing about the NBA since 1980. You can send him an email Herefind his archive here And Follow him on X.

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