ESPN predicts the second-to-last ranking in the College Football Playoff top 25 after Week 14

The 2024 college football regular season is officially underway, with only championship weekend left before the 13-team tournament College Football Playoffs The selection committee will finalize the first-ever 12-team playoff field next Sunday.

But first, the penultimate CFP Top 25 rankings will be announced Tuesday night, setting the stage for Saturday’s conference championship games, when the Power 4 and at least one Group of Five champions officially book their tickets to the 12th -Resolve teams field.

Heather DinichESPN’s leading expert on the CFP committee’s selection process revealed her predictions for what Tuesday’s penultimate top 25 rankings will look like below:

As the only college football team to finish the regular season undefeated, the Ducks maintain their No. 1 spot in the standings heading into next Saturday’s Big Ten Championship Game against the Ducks Penn State in Indianapolis. Oregon is on a roll after exorcising its own demons on Saturday after snapping a three-game losing streak against its former Pac-12 rival Washington with a 49-21 loss to Eugene.

Dinich pointed to the Ducks’ best record, according to ESPN’s metric, of wins over Ohio State And Michigan in his first season in the Big Ten, as well as his win over Boise Statethe likely Mountain West champion. Oregon will now face the Nittany Lions for the Big Ten championship after Penn State’s win sent it back into the title game Maryland And Ohio State‘s shocking defeat in The Game early Saturday.

Given the aforementioned loss of predecessor no. 2 Buckeyes, Texas, move up one spot after defeating bitter rival Texas A&M 17-7 in overtime of College Station’s Lone Star Showdown series on Saturday. It was a statement win for the Longhorns team, which has won five straight since the 30-15 loss to the visiting team Georgia Mid-October.

Texas will now have a chance for revenge against those same Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta next weekend. Dinich believes that if the Longhorns lose to Georgia again, they will likely fall behind the Bulldogs on Selection Sunday, but should stay ahead with two losses against Ohio State and secure a first-round playoff game in Austin.

As noted above, the Nittany Lions reached the program’s first Big Ten Championship game since winning the league in 2016. Since then, the Big Ten has been split between Ohio State and Michigan, whose 13-10 win over the second-place Buckeyes ended in that Saturday’s game – coupled with PSU’s 44-7 win over Maryland – secured the Lions’ ticket to Indianapolis.

Dinich gives Penn State the benefit of the doubt Notre Dame With ESPN analysts favoring the Nittany Lions based on their record and schedule. Given those advantages, Dinich also expects PSU to win a first-round home game in Happy Valley even if it loses in the Big Ten Championship Game.

The Fighting Irish are the hottest college football team outside of undefeated Oregon and have won 10 straight since a tough home loss in Week 2 Northern Illinois. Because of that reality and the lack of a conference championship game due to its independent status, Dinich is confident that Notre Dame has not only earned one of the CFP’s seven overall bids, but also a home playoff game in the first round.

While the championship games could still shake up the final College Football Playoff rankings/seedings, Dinich emphasized that the highest finish for the Irish is fifth place, as the top four is reserved for the conference champions.

Despite a slightly less inspiring performance in a 44-42 victory over their rivals in eight overtimes Georgia TechThe Bulldogs are the team with the most losses in the CFP due to their three wins over the current top 25 teams in the CFP Clemson, Texas And Tennessee. It’s those top-25 wins that give them the edge over Ohio State after the Buckeyes’ home loss to Michigan.

Georgia’s spot in the 12-team field is all but set in stone given Texas’ win over rival Texas A&M. This gives the Bulldogs the trump card to secure a victory over the SEC champions should the Longhorns get revenge in Atlanta. Of course, Georgia could remove any doubts by simply beating Texas again and securing a first-round bye as SEC champions.

The Buckeyes are among college football’s top two-loss teams after the unranked Wolverines handed them a disappointing 13-10 loss in Columbus on Saturday. Still, Dinich pointed to Ohio State’s regular-season wins over Penn State and Indiana for their spot at No. 6 and ahead of the SEC’s other contender by two losses.

Without another game, the Buckeyes are at the mercy of the committee and what ultimately happens in Saturday’s Big Ten title game. Given the Nittany Lions’ head-to-head win over Penn State, a Nittany Lions loss to Oregon in Indianapolis could allow Ohio State to stay in the top 8 and secure a home first-round playoff game, whereas an Oregon loss could leave the Buckeyes The mixture could be eliminated to the host.

The volunteers managed to stop the upstart Vanderbilt for a 36-23 win in Nashville, clinching the state’s standings and securing a spot in the 12-team CFP field. The only question is whether Tennessee ultimately hosts a first-round home playoff game at Neyland Stadium.

Much like Ohio State, Tennessee will have to wait and see how things play out in the SEC Championship Game before learning where it lands on Selection Sunday. A Texas win could knock Georgia out of contention for a first-round home game, with the Vols the primary beneficiary. A Bulldogs win, on the other hand, would mean the Longhorns would get a home game in the first round and push Tennessee on the road.

With one win over four losses, the Mustangs could go a long way toward securing their spot in the 12-team playoff field Clemson in the ACC championship game on Saturday, securing a top-four overall seed as conference champions.

Of course, if SMU falls to Clemson in Charlotte, Dinich isn’t sure the Mustangs have enough of a resume to secure one of the final seven overall offers, especially if it’s a significant loss. SMU has been on a roll lately, winning nine straight since an 18-15 loss to BYU in early September, but won’t have a single top-25 win on its record if the Tigers win on Saturday.

The Hoosiers bounced back from their narrow Week 13 loss to Ohio State in Columbus by eliminating their rival Purdue 66-0 last Saturday, all but securing his spot in the 12-man field. Although Dinich doesn’t expect Indiana to overtake SMU in the second-to-last rankings on Tuesday, their spot in the playoffs as the Big Ten’s fourth representative appears to be assured.

However, with the other Big Ten representatives out on Selection Sunday, the Hoosiers are likely looking forward to a first-round road game. The only way for Indiana to get a late lead in the standings is a Clemson upset against SMU, which would push the Mustangs down and bring the Hoosiers into the game as hosts.

All they do is: win, win, win. Should the Broncos continue their winning streak and secure their second straight Mountain West championship with a win? UNLVBoise appears poised to secure a final top-four seed and a first-round bye as the fourth-seeded conference champion in the field.

Despite a less-than-stellar record, the Broncos have won 10 straight since a 37-34 loss at Oregon in early September, with wins totaling more than $100,000 Washington state and a current top-20 Rebels roster at the end of October.

11. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) -5
12. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
13. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
15. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) +2
16. Cyclones in the state of Iowa (10-2) +5
17. Clemson Tigers (9-3) -1
18. BYU Cougars (10-2)
19. Missouri Tigers (9-3) +4
20. UNLV Rebels (10-2) +2
21. Colorado buffalo (9-3) -1
22. Illinois fights Illinois (9-3) +2
23. Syracuse Orange (9-3) NO
24. Memphis Tigers (10-2) NO
25. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) -10