Ethan Hampton & Mikey Keene out?

Both the Northern Illinois Huskies and Fresno State Bulldogs are in a state of flux this bowl season as several starters have entered the transfer portal.

So which team will overcome the odds and deliver on the blue turf in the famous Idaho Potato Bowl? Let’s dive into this Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State prediction.

Betting Preview: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

All Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of Monday, December 23, 2024. CFN spread is from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

• CFN FPM spread
  Fresno State -1.5
• Spread
  Northern Illinois -3
• Money line
  Northern Illinois -142, Fresno State +120
• Over/Under
  41 points
• Playtime
  Monday, December 23, 12:30 p.m. ET
• Location
  Albertsons Stadium | Boise, ID
• Here’s how to watch
  ESPN

In one of the strangest line moves (or lack thereof) of the bowl season, the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl started at Northern Illinois -2.5 and hasn’t really moved, despite both teams losing several starters to the transfer portal.

MORE: Who decided not to attend a bowl game? Track them all with our College Football Bowl Game Opt-Out Tracker!

Both starting quarterbacks have indicated it’s unlikely they will play in a game where the totals are already low. Accordingly, Vegas expects this to be a tough battle and one of the lowest scoring games of the bowl season.

Northern Illinois win probability

CFN’s FPM is slightly lower for the Huskies, making them 1.5 point underdogs. This corresponds to a probability of winning of 47.2%.

The biggest question concerns the quarterback position, but Northern Illinois also lost a few defensive starters and several rotation players on the defensive line.

Fresno State’s probability of winning

On the other hand, the Bulldogs are slight favorites with a win probability of 52.8%.

Fresno State is in a transition period after hiring Matt Entz as head coach. He won’t coach in the bowl game, but the Bulldogs will look to secure a winning record after losing three of their last four to close the regular season.

• vs. Northern Illinois: 52.8%

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Prediction

Fair or not, one of my main betting rules during bowl season is simple: always bet against the MAC. As a conference, the MAC has stumbled through the transfer portal era like a fish out of water.

So when I see a tight spread on a MAC team in December, I instinctively start looking for reasons not to support them.

Enter Mikey Keene, the talented Fresno State quarterback who sat out the famed Idaho Potato Bowl after entering the transfer portal. Without Keene, the Bulldogs lack an obvious answer at quarterback.

However, Northern Illinois starter Ethan Hampton is also out for this game, making the handicap difficult. At least the Huskies have a clearer plan: Freshman Josh Holst will make just his second career start.

Holst hasn’t exactly shined in the stats, averaging barely five yards per attempt this season. Nevertheless, he is a dangerous runner who can create chances on both targeted runs and scrambles.

FOLLOW ALONG: Track every transfer portal participant in our CFN transfer portal tracker now!

With the quarterback situation uncertain and two of its top three receivers out, Fresno State will likely lean on the ground game against a Northern Illinois defense that excels at passing.

For this reason, I expect the Bulldogs to go with the more mobile Joshua Wood at quarterback. If Fresno is unlikely to have success throwing the ball, it makes sense to utilize Wood’s rushing abilities for an offense that has struggled on the ground all season.

This matchup seems to favor Northern Illinois’ defense, but I trust Fresno State will come out more motivated. Popular interim coach Tim Skipper will lead the Bulldogs for the final time and I think his players will rally behind him.

It looks like it will be an ugly game on the blue turf, but I expect the Mountain West team to find a little more rhythm offensively than their MAC counterparts.

Even though Fresno missed two early defensive tackles, their depth on defense should make a difference down the stretch. However, with such a low total, don’t be afraid to take the under.

Forecast: Fresno State 21, Northern Illinois 13

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