Faint Cincinnati Bengals in “Must-Win” Vs. Denver Broncos Saturday in NFL Week 17

A well-known professional sports bettor whose name escapes me once said, “If you have to win, you can’t be that good.” Well, that Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) are a must-win when hosting Denver Broncos (9-6) at Paycor Stadium on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET. Entering Week 17, Denver is the seventh and final seed in the AFC playoffs and Cincy is 10th.

The Broncos will clinch a playoff spot next week with a win over the Bengals or Kansas City Chiefs, who have nothing to play for. To make the playoffs, Cincinnati must win on Saturday and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 18, plus lose once to the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins.

I originally planned to bet on the Bengals at this point. Cincy QB Joe Burrow would be in the NFL MVP discussion if they won a few of the coin tosses they lost earlier this season. Denver rookie QB Bo Nix cost me a lot of money when I played for the Auburn Tigers in college, and I didn’t bet on him this year.

The Denver Broncos visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday in NFL Week 17 at Paycor Stadium in Ohio. (Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images)

But then I remembered the line I used in my intro blurb and dug deeper into this matchup. I beat the Broncos in their 34-27 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last week because Denver was overrated after a few fluke goals. So I thought the Broncos were that lucky team and Cincinnati’s bad luck this year was made public.

Best Bet: Denver Broncos +3.5 (-118) at DraftKings

However, that is not correct. Sure, Denver played a few games it hardly should have won or lost. Nonetheless, the Broncos are 1-5 in one-score games and the Bengals are 2-7. So if you flip the results of the coin toss, Denver would be 13-2 and Cincinnati would be 12-3.

Additionally, the Broncos have a 9.7 “expected wins” based on net efficiency compared to the 28th-toughest schedule, according to Pro Football Focus. Cincy has 8.2 “expected wins” compared to the 27th toughest schedule. The Bengals can make excuses, but they’re just not that good. They rank 28th in points allowed per game and the Broncos have better fundamentals. Albeit easily.

Additionally, Denver has a distinct advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and performance on the offensive line is one of the most predictive things in football. According to ESPN, the Broncos rank eighth or better in win percentages for pass protection, run blocking, pass rush and run stopping. Cincinnati ranks 21st or worse in these four metrics.

The Denver Broncos celebrate a defensive stop against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. (Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images)

Because Nix cost me so much money in college football in 2019-21 and I don’t think he’ll be a long-term franchise quarterback, Denver +3 is my least favorite pick in Week 17 of the Circa Million VI NFL Handicap competition. However, due to Christmas and a difficult Week 17, I’m forced to give up my stubbornness and support the Broncos.

Prediction: Cincinnati 30, Denver 28

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