Fantasy Baseball: Reaction to Juan Soto’s Signing with the New York Mets

Juan Soto gets on the 7-man train and makes $765 million with the New York Mets.

With Sunday night’s announcement, the biggest name in baseball’s 2024-25 free agent season and the top-ranked free agent in all of fantasy baseball is off the table. Soto will spend the next 15 seasons manning right field — although a later career move to designated hitter seems logical — and batting second or third for the Mets.

Soto, now in the prime of 26, is coming off the best statistical season of his career, including personal bests of 41 home runs, 128 runs scored, 166 hits, 328 total bases, 713 plate appearances and 137.2 runs created. At first glance, the crosstown move seems to hurt him more than help him, considering the different playing conditions between the New York Yankees and Mets and a supposedly weaker offense.

It’s true, Citi Field is a much Pitcher-friendly environment than Soto’s one-year home, Yankee Stadium – and especially for lefties. Statcast’s Park Factors reflect that Yankee Stadium increased home runs for both left-handed hitters and hitters overall by 19% over the last three seasons and generally between 14% and 25% cheaper in the three years since it opened in 2009 was. Citi Field, in comparison, emptied Home runs by left-handed hitters have increased 7% over the past three years, covering the period since the park’s last dimensional changes.

The Mets also scored 47 fewer runs, or 0.29 per game, than the Yankees last season, but keep in mind that the latter’s total also included Soto’s contributions. From 2022 to 2024, the Yankees outscored their crosstown rivals by just 38 total runs, meaning Soto’s addition should immediately make the Mets the Mets to surpass the 800-run threshold in 2025. And considering owner Steve Cohen’s financial commitment to Soto, given his past aggressive spending habits, it’s a fair assumption that Soto will be surrounded by a strong supporting cast that will only increase his number of RBI and run-scoring opportunities .

Back to where we started, Soto has played much of his career in venues that weren’t much friendlier to left-handed power hitters than his new home. He hit 35 home runs, his second-best annual total, with the 2023 San Diego Padres, who call Petco Park home, and 34 and 29 with the 2019 and 2021 Washington Nationals, whose Nationals Park is a neutral power environment. Soto may never be the betting favorite for a league-leading HR total during his Mets career, but the environment at Citi Field may not be particularly so hinder his number.

By the way, Soto is a lifetime .333/.466/.709 hitter in his 35 games at Citi Field, and his 12 home runs and 9.8 HR/AB ratio are both his best in any single stadium he’s been in at least occurred 15 games. Ignore these numbers as “small sample luck” if you want, but the fact remains that Citi Field hasn’t hindered him in the past.

We’ll see how the rest of the Mets lineup stacks up in the coming weeks – how the team handles first base with Pete Alonso being a free agent will have some say in that – but there’s plenty of talent in this lineup , so that Soto can remain a simple, universal beginner.

Francisco Lindor, if he’s still the leader, which is likely, should benefit from more quality throws ahead of Soto in the order, while potential No. 3 and cleanup hitters would enjoy the “Aaron Judge” treatment behind Soto. If that’s Mark Vientos, the most used hitter in that area currently still with the Mets, he could follow his 2024 breakout with another noticeable step forward in production.

Soto is more valuable in points leagues than in traditional roto, having reached the 500-point threshold (the bar that defines the game’s true elite) and ranked in the top 10 in total points three times in the last four years. In the Player Rater he ranked 20th, 116th, 21st and 8th overall over the same period.

However, his choice of blue and orange instead of pinstripes shouldn’t deter aspiring fantasy managers from making a mid-first round pick on him. Soto’s consistency, ranging from 27 to 41 home runs and 93 to 128 runs scored in his last five non-shortened seasons, makes him one of the best return on investment players at this stage of the fantasy draft.