Fantasy Football: Conviction Pick of the Week 16

The Yahoo Fantasy team shares its predictions for Week 16 – semifinal week for most – the final step toward the Fantasy Football Super Bowl.

A big week is ahead for JSN

It sounds like we’ll get Geno Smith in this Week 16 game instead of having sack-eating backup Sam Howell at center for the Seahawks. Even if Smith is a better sack avoider than Howell, he will still face waves of pressure from the Vikings. Seattle’s offensive line is a mismatch compared to Minnesota’s. So expect a lot of quick passes to Jaxon Smith-Njigba throughout the game.

According to Fantasy Points Data, Seattle has faced two-high coverage since Week 10 – Minnesota has been among the defenses with the most two-highs this season – JSN is accelerating the team at 3.2 yards per route run, while DK Metcalf is just above that is 1.0. It’s not a coverage look that favors deep passes outside the number, and Seattle’s quarterbacks rarely have the time to uncork these throws behind their offensive line. — Matt Harmon

Maye gets the seal of approval

I’m amazed that Drake Maye continues to play well every week despite a patchwork offensive line and an ordinary group of pass catchers. He always remains balanced despite high pressure and the athletic Maye has proven to be resourceful as an occasional runner. I view Maye as a safe and interesting option for Week 16, as New England will need to be more aggressive as it likely faces negative play at Buffalo. Maye is considered your second QB in superflex formats and I would consider him as QB1 in standard pools if your branded starter isn’t performing. — Scott Pianoski

Jauan Jennings returns to form

At first glance, Jauan Jennings’ production appears to be experiencing extreme volatility. He finished the last four games as WR48, WR52, WR5 and WR67. However, there are valid excuses for this production.

Purdy missed Week 12 – the WR48 gig – due to injury. He returned in Week 13 but was clearly still struggling with the injury and only threw 18 passes. Purdy returned to form in Week 14 against a strong Chicago secondary, and Jennings shined with a top-five finish. Week 15 was Thursday night’s terrible game in the rain against the LA Rams, where neither Purdy nor Matt Stafford managed more than 160 yards. This week is the perfect rebounding scenario against the Miami Dolphins. Expect Jennings to return to his WR1 form and thrive against an inconsistent Miami secondary. — Tera Roberts

Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Forecast Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

Trey McBride finally scores a TD… no, seriously

I’ll just keep spreading Trey McBride propaganda until the man finally returns to the end zone. It’s been an incredibly long TD drought – one that just needs to end soon. McBride is too talented and too heavily targeted for this to continue. Somehow this man is the overall TE3 of the season without scoring a single score.

This week, the most touchdown-challenged player in recent memory faces a Carolina defense that has allowed the most touchdowns to the tight end position this year. At least in theory, something has to give. The Panthers have allowed 27 passing points this season, which is the most in the league. Ten of those TDs belong to tight ends. fantasy Shine like Noah Gray, Grant Calcaterra, Foster Moreau, Adam Trautman and Ben Sinnott have already visited the end zone against Carolina (some of them more than once). Surely McBride can come home this week, right?

If not, I’ll talk about the man again next week. — Andy Behrens

Cheer on Mr. Meyers!

Jakobi Meyers saw the second-most targets (45) and air yards (447) in the league last month – and that was the case with Desmond Ridder last week. Aidan O’Connell is leaning toward playing on Sunday and his return would give Meyers a boost.

The Jaguars have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, and this matchup should be fast-paced. Meyers’ target rate has increased to 25.5% compared to man coverage this season, giving Jacksonville the fourth-highest rate in the league (38.2%). Meyers lands as a top-15 WR this week. — Dalton Del Don

James Conner keeps it going

Even though James Conner is almost 30 years old, he’s getting better and better as the season goes on with the Cardinals. He’s had consecutive fantastic fantasy performances this season, including an RB1 overall finish in Week 15 when he rushed for 138 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots. Conner earned 70% of the backfield opportunities in this game, which was higher than his usual role as both of the Cardinals’ backups were dealing with injuries. Emari Demercado was placed on IR prior to Week 15 and Trey Benson injured his ankle in the second half against the Patriots.

That increased effort from Conner could continue this week in a great matchup against the Panthers, who are allowing the most rushing yards per game and the second-most rushing touchdowns this season. Carolina has allowed 125 rushing yards per game to starting RBs over the last six weeks, making this the perfect spot for Conner to earn his third consecutive weekly RB top-10 ranking. — Sal Vetri