Fantasy Football Fact or Coincidence: Finding Trustworthy Emergency Starters for Week 14

In this edition of Fact or Fluke, we look ahead to Week 14, which will test the patience and skills of some fantasy managers. Six teams are on byes, and five of them (Baltimore, Washington, Indianapolis, Houston and Denver) have players we can rely on heavily. New England, the sixth, has one or two starting positions in deeper leagues.

Many of us have benches full of injured or questionable players, especially after a difficult Week 13. We all have certain players in the field whose results are so varied that we can’t quite drop them, but we can’t quite drop them either take away We decided to start with this most weeks. Additionally, recent games may have opened up some new opportunities in the backup running back department.

Bucky Irving and Chase Brown are in full takeover mode for their backfields, while Chris Rodriguez Jr., Ray Davis and Sincere McCormick have seen an uptick in usage. On the other hand, many of our fantasy followers find themselves in some really ugly matchups this week; Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, to name a few. Josh Jacobs and Bijan Robinson have an uphill battle at RB, so we really need some solid options with potential to round out our roster this week.

We’ll go position by position to find out who’s a safe replacement for your Week 14 bye/injury woes.

Remember: For most leagues, this is the final step into the playoffs.

QB: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings

Darnold is the season’s fantasy QB8, averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game; he was only used in 33% of leagues in Week 13 (70% of leagues). If you’re the person holding Darnold, it’s probably this week. The Vikings host the Falcons this weekend and Atlanta is the seventh-best QB matchup. Even in more difficult situations (Detroit, Chicago) Darnold was able to prevail.

His two truly terrible outings (Jets in Week 5 and, inexplicably, Jaguars in Week 10) are outliers. I’ve been with you on the PTSD since Week 10, but aside from getting blown out by the Broncos a few weeks ago, Atlanta has kept games relatively close, which should keep the Vikings motivated and Darnold throwing touchdowns should.

RB: Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers can’t catch a break. Everyone knew what would happen to Christian McCaffrey’s season after watching the replay a few times on Sunday Night Football, but that Jordan Mason would be placed on IR with a high ankle sprain?! Come on, fantasy gods.

Next man up is rookie Guerendo, who has seen very little action this season (42 runs) but has an impressive 5.9 YPC average. In two games with 10 or more touches, he managed 9.9 YPC and 6.1 YPC. He will likely be busy this weekend against the Bears, as a ground attack was more successful against Chicago’s stout defense than an aerial attack.

RB: Braelon Allen, New York Jets

This is a real piece of desperation; For example, if you could get your hands on one of the defensemen that are starters in 30-60% of leagues (D’Andre Swift, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Rico Dowdle, Isiah Pacheco, Nick Chubb, etc.), you would do that. But that seems obvious to me. So if you’re here and you’re really desperate, there are a few reasons to like Allen this week.

One of them is that the Jets won’t make the playoffs. Second, Breece Hall fumbled twice and lost one in Week 13 after being questionable before the game with a knee injury. There’s really no reason for the Jets to risk another injury to their superstar running back at this point in the season. Third, Allen has been pretty reliable when asked to take on a larger role. Finally, Miami has been a brutal passing game but ranks 10th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.

Bottom line: If your squad can handle the very wide range of results Allen offers, he could be a pleasant surprise on Sunday.

WR: Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders

Meyers ranks fourth among wide receivers in the last three games. Only Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London and Malik Nabers are ahead of him in terms of chances. I admit that Aidan O’Connell’s targets aren’t particularly sought after by fantasy managers, but Meyers is a skilled PPR hero. Meyers is in most leagues but started at just 41% last week and should be an easy pick for Week 14.

It’s a favorable passing game for him and Brock Bowers against the Bucs. This offense basically involves these two guys, so the volume should stay high. Meyers scored 11 or more in three of the last four games, averaging 107 receiving yards per game on 24 catches. However, he seems to be back in no-goal mode after breaking out of that form a bit last season. Or maybe the best is yet to come…

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WR: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans

In case you somehow missed it, Westbrook-Ikhine may have the best catch-to-touchdown ratio of all time (20:8). After his two-touchdown game in Week 13, this could be viewed as chasing for points, which I hate to do. With a catch percentage of just 52.6 and just 365 yards on the year and an inconsistent quarterback, we’re not dealing with a high-floor player, but rather an upside player with a reasonable baseline. He has scored at least five goals in each of the last three games, putting him behind Calvin Ridley in that regard – but not by much.

He’s one of the main reasons Will Levis is getting more traction (see below). The Titans and Levis will look to finish their season strong, with Westbrook-Ikhine undoubtedly playing for another extension this offseason. A strong performance against a pass defense that gives up the third-most fantasy points to opponents seems more likely than unlikely.

TE: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Otton is in over 80% of leagues, but started in less than 45% of leagues. Week 14 could mark Otton’s return to relevance. From Weeks 7 to 9, he enjoyed a stretch in which he posted double-digit targets, averaged nearly 100 yards per game, and scored three times. Things have been admittedly dismal since then, but he has improved, scoring seven goals in Week 13.

We’re partly referencing the matchup here – the Bucs are hosting Las Vegas – but it’s not just that. Otton has proven to be a reliable pass catcher and end zone target. Baker Mayfield was more than competent in leading Tampa Bay to another playoff berth this year, a trend that should continue in this convenient location.

QB2: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

For those in Superflex leagues that experience twice as many gameweek issues, it could be Levis time. Remember that offseason when he was looking to make big strides and make the jump to fantasy production as a sophomore? Sometimes we’re right, but we’re just not right right away.

Levis has averaged 17.2 fantasy points in his last four games, with a TD:INT ratio of 8:2. A clash with the defenseless Jaguars this weekend should mean more of the same fantasy goodness for Levis. Not only does Jacksonville give up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs, but they also give up the most fantasy points overall and the third-most real-life points. It’s about as friendly a duel as you can get and I prefer him this weekend to any of Cooper Rush, Aidan O’Connell (albeit just barely), Mac Jones or Bryce Young.