Flight recorders from the crashed Azerbaijani jet have been recovered as questions mount about Russia’s involvement. We know that

CNN
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Early indications suggest a Russian anti-aircraft system may have shot down the passenger plane that crashed in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, a US official told CNN, while authorities have recovered a second black box that they hope will shed light on the cause The catastrophe claimed the lives of dozens of people.

Evidence suggests a Russian system attacked Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 before it crashed near the city of Aktau, the U.S. official said Thursday.

This is the first time the U.S. has provided an assessment of Wednesday’s crash, which killed at least 38 of the 67 people on board the plane.

If the initial indications are ultimately confirmed, it could have been a case of mistaken identity, the US official said, in which poorly trained Russian units negligently targeted Ukraine’s use of drones.

Officials from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia urged people not to speculate about the crash until the investigation is complete.

A commission involving representatives from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia has been set up to investigate the crash, said Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev. However, law enforcement agencies of Russia and Azerbaijan are not allowed to conduct a forensic investigation, he said, according to Kazakh state media.

Here’s what we know about the crash so far.

The plane was en route from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny, the capital of the southern Russian republic of Chechnya, before making an emergency landing about three kilometers (1.8 miles) from Aktau, Azerbaijan Airlines said on Wednesday.

Russian state media reported that the plane was diverted due to heavy fog in Grozny.

According to flight tracking website Flightradar24, the plane took off at 7:55 a.m. Azerbaijan standard time (10:55 p.m. Tuesday ET) on Wednesday and crashed about two and a half hours later.

Officials did not immediately explain why the plane crossed the Caspian Sea, even though Baku and Grozny are to the west and Aktau to the east.

A second black box was recovered from the crash site, the state news agency Kazinform reported on Thursday. Authorities hope it will provide important information that will help investigators solve what happened.

According to Kazakh state media, it will take about two weeks to read the flight recorders found at the crime scene, Bozumbayev said.

Kazakhstan’s Transport Minister Marat Karabayev said Thursday that a Kazakh control center received a signal from Russia that the flight was being diverted about 45 minutes before the plane crashed.

The Russian dispatcher said the plane had a fault in its control systems and that the crew decided to fly to Aktau after receiving reports of bad weather, Karabayev said. The dispatcher later said that “an oxygen tank exploded in the passenger cabin and the passengers lost consciousness,” according to Karabayev.

While the crew was making two landing approaches at Aktau airport, the plane veered off course and lost communication with dispatchers when it crashed, Karabayev said.

Flightradar24 said in a social media post that the plane was “exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny.” According to Flightradar24, GPS interference can significantly impact an aircraft’s ability to navigate and communicate, creating potential safety risks.

Data and video of the crash “also suggest possible control issues with the aircraft,” Flightradar24 said.

At least 38 of the 67 people on board the plane died in the crash, Kazakh authorities confirmed, including two pilots and a flight attendant.

About 29 survivors, including two children, were rescued from the rubble, Bozumbayev said.

According to preliminary information from the Kazakh Ministry of Transport, 37 of the passengers were Azerbaijani citizens and 16 from Russia, as well as six from Kazakhstan and three from Kyrgyzstan.

Kazakhstan’s Deputy Health Minister Timur Muratov said on Thursday that nine Russian citizens and 14 Azerbaijani citizens had been repatriated to their respective countries, according to Kazakh state media.

Six patients are still being treated in Aktau, including three Azerbaijani and three Kyrgyz citizens, he said. Four of these six are in intensive care, while the condition of one patient remains extremely serious and unstable, he added.

Videos and images of the plane after the crash show perforations in its fuselage that resemble damage from shrapnel or debris. The cause of these holes is not confirmed.

Video shows moment of plane crash in Kazakhstan

Azerbaijan Airlines initially told AZERTAC that the incident was caused by the plane’s collision with a flock of birds, the outlet reported. The Russian Air Transport Agency also said the plane crashed after colliding with birds.

However, Andriy Kovalenko, the head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, part of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, denied this, claiming on social media that the plane was “shot down by a Russian air defense system.”

The crash occurred shortly after Ukrainian drone strikes hit southern Russia. Drone activity has closed airports in the region in the past, and the nearest Russian airport on the plane’s route was closed Wednesday morning.

“Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny, but didn’t,” Kovalenko said, speculating that authorities will try to cover up the real reason for the crash, including the holes in the plane, because it would be “inconvenient.” , to blame him on Russia.

Justin Crump, an intelligence, security and defense expert and CEO of risk consultancy Sibylline, told BBC Radio 4 on Thursday that the Russian-fired plane is “the best theory that fits all the available facts that we know of.” Crump added that Russian air defenses were active in Grozny at the time the plane was damaged.

“I don’t think that’s intentional at all,” he noted, noting that Russia is “very concerned” about active Ukrainian drones with longer ranges that “very often don’t get shot down.”

Osprey Flight Solutions, a U.K.-based company that analyzes security risks in the aviation sector, also said in a warning to airlines that the flight was “likely shot down by a Russian military air defense system,” according to the Wall Street Journal.

The US official who spoke to CNN on Thursday did not say what type of system may have shot down the passenger plane. Russia has a number of anti-aircraft systems, including its advanced S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, as well as its Pantsir medium-range system and others.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday it was wrong to speculate about the cause of the crash before an investigation had been conducted. When asked Friday whether he would comment on reports that Russia shot down the plane, he said he had nothing to add to his previous statement.

Maulen Ashimbayev, chairman of the Kazakh Senate, said on Thursday that “the nature of this damage and the causes of the disaster are currently unknown.”

According to Azerbaijan’s state news agency, Brazilian authorities and representatives from plane maker Embraer are expected to arrive in Kazakhstan as authorities begin to piece together the events that led to the crash.

“We have preserved the wreckage of the aircraft at the scene of the accident in the same condition as when it crashed. The area is fenced. Nobody will enter. This will help them investigate the incident if necessary,” Bozumbayev said, according to Kazakh state media.

Kazakhstan’s Deputy Transport Minister Talgat Lastayev said that experts would arrive in the country on Friday and that “this process is now underway – fragments and details are being collected,” according to state news agency Kazinform.

Bozumbayev said that “even the preliminary cause cannot be clarified, as specialists are needed for this.”

“They will carry out the work and then it will be clear,” Bozumbayev said on Thursday.

Bozumbayev also said that they had not received any reports of the accident from either Russia or Azerbaijan. “Therefore, it is impossible to refute any version,” he said, according to Kazinform.