France’s Government Collapse, Explained | Vox

The French government collapsed on Wednesday after a vote of no confidence in the country’s prime minister, plunging the country’s political future into chaos and deepening its budget and looming economic crises.

The successful vote means center-right Prime Minister Michel Barnier will lose his job and French President Emmanuel Macron will have to find someone to replace him. This should not be an easy task: While the president in France appoints prime ministers, his candidates can be ousted at any time through votes of no confidence, as was the case with Barnier. And the National Assembly, the lower house of the French parliament, is almost evenly divided between the far right, a loosely united and contentious left wing, and the center, including Macron’s allies. Only a few candidates will appeal to all three factions.

Disagreement over who should become prime minister after last summer’s surprise election led to Barnier’s rise. He was considered a capable, if unpopular, candidate for the post and received enough support to win the post of prime minister. But he faced the big challenge of wanting to govern without a majority. His recent attempt to push through a 2025 state budget without a vote in the lower house of parliament angered lawmakers on both the right and left. As a result, France’s far-right party and its left-wing alliance each submitted motions of no confidence.

Now France is stuck. Without a prime minister, the government’s ability to pass laws is limited. In the long term, Barnier’s removal could worsen France’s ongoing budget crisis and reflects an unprecedented polarization in French politics for which a solution seems far out of reach.

Who are the players involved?

There are three key figures in the drama of distrust: Barnier, the prime minister; Macron, French President; and Marine Le Pen, the ideological architect and former leader of the far-right Rassemblement National party, who was instrumental in overthrowing Barnier.

Barnier, a more traditional French conservative, has a long career that includes stints in the French government and the European Commission, most notably as chief Brexit negotiator on the European side. He lost the vote of no confidence on Wednesday and has to resign from office. Macron could reappoint him, but he has indicated he would not take the job. His term is the shortest in modern French history.

Macron is a beleaguered, extremely unpopular president. He must quickly appoint another prime minister to pass the government budget and hopefully prevent France from being gripped by an economic crisis. (More on this below.) However, his options are limited given the dysfunction in the National Assembly.

Le Pen is Macron’s main rival. She has long sought the French presidency but has failed to secure it three times so far. She could try again in the next presidential election in 2027, but could be barred from running, depending on the outcome of a corruption trial next spring. If Macron resigns and early elections are held this year, there would be nothing to stop her from entering the race – and that has led to some speculation that Barnier’s removal was part of a larger plan to force Macron to resign . (However, he said he’s not going anywhere.)

Regardless of what Macron decides, Le Pen managed to manipulate her party’s power in the National Assembly and exert her own influence to topple Barnier and cause chaos in the French government. She called on her party to agree to the left-wing coalition’s no-confidence motion – even after urging Barnier to ally with her party on key issues in return for her party’s approval of his budget.

“She is angry with the political elites and … wants revenge,” Patrick Chamorel, senior researcher at the Stanford Center in Washington, told Vox.

Why is the government in trouble now?

The political unrest in France did not exactly begin with Barnier; To understand what is happening now, we have to look back to July.

At that time, early parliamentary elections were being held in France after Macron’s party suffered a disastrous defeat in the European Parliament elections in June. Macron’s decision to hold the election came as a surprise and he hoped voters would reject the far right at home. Instead, Le Pen’s National Rally Party (RN) gained ground in these elections, as did far-right parties across Europe.

Before election day, it seemed all but certain that RN would defeat the various left-wing parties and Macron’s centrists. But in a final attempt to keep the right wing out of power, the New Popular Front emerged, an uneasy alliance of four left-wing parties. Now they have the largest bloc in the National Assembly, but not enough power and support to secure the approval of their chosen prime ministerial candidate by the National Assembly. These left-wing parties have threatened a vote of no confidence against Barnier since he took office.

The divided parliament has a major problem to deal with: an enormous budget deficit linked to the political crisis.

The country’s budget deficit is currently 6.1 percent of its economic output and rising, and its debts amount to 3.2 trillion euros. Several serious crises, including the Covid-19 pandemic and the energy crisis caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine – coupled with slow economic growth and low tax revenues – have put the country in this situation. French companies have begun layoffs and worker unrest is growing.

Simply put, France’s economic prospects are not good, and if the country wants to change that, it needs a real budget that puts money into the treasury, not to mention a government that can take measures to strengthen the overall economy.

Barnier was tasked with finding a way out; His proposed budget was expected to save around 60 billion euros by imposing high taxes on corporations and the wealthy and cutting public spending, including on pensions and health reimbursements.

Given the French tradition of a strong welfare state, an austerity budget would certainly be unpopular. It was. Unable to win the RN’s support, he used his constitutional powers to pass the budget without the approval of the National Assembly – triggering motions of no confidence from the left and right blocs.

What happens now that the government has fallen apart?

In the short term, Barnier must resign as prime minister and his cabinet will be dissolved. He will likely remain in office until Macron can name his successor. In France, the prime minister regulates much of the domestic policy, while the president deals more with international affairs.

The government will continue to carry out its day-to-day functions – unlike a government shutdown in the US, government services will continue. But no new laws can be passed until Macron appoints a new prime minister.

This will not be an easy task; Because the National Assembly is so polarized, it will be difficult to find a candidate who will receive majority support there. (The prime minister does not need to be confirmed by parliament, but since blocs can trigger a vote of no confidence at any time, the president must appoint someone who can survive a vote of no confidence.) France cannot hold another general election until next summer.

Both RN and the far-left party France Unbowed (also known as LFI, part of the New Popular Front coalition) have called on Macron to resign, which he says he will not do. The next French presidential election is scheduled for 2027, but both RN and LFI hope to oust Macron from office and field their own polarizing candidates.

In the longer term, France’s fiscal crisis will not go away until there is a government that adopts a 2025 budget, and the successful adoption of a new budget will likely mean having to put up with Le Pen and the RN.

For now, Le Pen and her party have wielded their power to topple the government, but Chamorel said there were downsides for them too. “She will keep her hardline voters,” he told Vox. “But she will be held accountable.”