Garrett Crochet trade analysis for Red Sox and White Sox

The Red Sox and White Sox pulled off the biggest blockbuster of the offseason so far on Wednesday night when Boston acquired All-Star left-hander Garrett Crochet from Chicago in exchange for a major prospect acquisition.

Here’s a breakdown of this fascinating exchange from all angles, from MLB.com experts:

Why it makes sense for the Red Sox
About Red Sox beat writer Ian Browne

The Red Sox were able to pull off the deal without removing anyone from the strong young core of their major league roster, leaving the club with a robust stock of position players and now the front-line pitcher for the rotation that Breslow has desired all winter long.

Breslow had had discussions with the two lefties on the free agent market in Blake Snell and Max Fried. After losing Snell to the Dodgers last week and Fried to the rival Yankees on Tuesday, the Red Sox responded with their big answer, one that doesn’t require a huge financial commitment, at least right off the bat. Crochet still has two arbitration-eligible seasons left.

Although Crochet doesn’t have the long track record of Sale eight years ago, the upside potential is comparable. The 25-year-old, who debuted in 2020, recovered from Tommy John surgery in 2022 and became a bright spot in a difficult season for the White Sox.

Crochet was an All-Star for Chicago in 2024, his first year as a starting pitcher in the majors. While he pitched 146 innings – the White Sox had him count on one pitch the entire time – Crochet had 209 strikeouts with just 33 walks. He had a WHIP of 1.07 and an average of 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings. More >>

Why it makes sense for the White Sox
About White Sox beat writer Scott Merkin

Crochet was arguably the majors’ best starting pitcher at the 2024 All-Star break, and after having a full year as a starter with his innings restrictions lifted, he’s expected to be retired only after 209 strikeouts over 146 innings and 32 starts gets better.

So why trade the 25-year-old southpaw?

The White Sox had contractual control of the rotation ace and team leader for two years, and the club doesn’t expect him to compete for a title during that time. General manager Chris Getz is leading a complete rebuild of this organization, ranging from improving infrastructure to the entire talent core, and this was a chance to acquire four players from Boston’s top 14 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline.

Let’s call it a reconstruction accelerator.

“We’ll get a better idea of ​​it in spring training; Some have more experience at Triple-A than others,” Getz said Wednesday afternoon at the conclusion of the winter meetings. “But we’re talking about top talent here. We want these guys ready to go into spring training and compete for spots.”

Teel (MLB’s No. 25 overall), who was part of the four-player return from Boston, and Edgar Quero (No. 59) give the White Sox two catchers in MLB Pipeline’s top 60 overall, along with Korey Lee, the has made great strides over the course of the 2024 season. The switch-hitting Montgomery could become one of the more dynamic young offensive players in the game. He is expected to be fully healthy in 2025 after suffering a broken right ankle in Texas A&M’s Super Regional loss to Oregon last season that prevented him from making his professional debut.

For Getz, it’s a big picture. It’s a trade that benefits both teams in terms of their immediate goals.

“This is a deal above what we could have gotten based on our valuations at the 2024 (trade) deadline,” Getz said. “That more or less set the bar for us. The deadline was not met and we feel we have exceeded that deadline. For this reason we decided to trade.” More >>

Prospect profile
About Jim Callis and MLB Pipeline

C Kyle Teel (No. 25 overall)
Age: 22
Ht: 6’0” / Weight: 190 pounds.
Bats: L/ Litters: R
Designed: 1st round, 2023
MLB ETA: 2025

Scouting grades (on a scale of 20 to 80): Hits: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Total: 55

Statistics for 2024
Double-A Portland: .298/.390/.462, 11 HR, 60 RBIs, 9 SB in 84 games
Triple-A Worcester: .255/.374/.343, 2 HR, 18 RBIs, 3 SB in 28 games

OF Braden Montgomery (No. 54 overall)
Age: 21
Ht: 6 feet 2 inches / Weight: 220 pounds.
Bats: S/ Litters: R
Designed: 1st round, 2024
MLB ETA: 2027

Scouting grades (on a scale of 20 to 80): Hits: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Arm: 70 | Field: 50 | Total: 55

In return for Crochet, the White Sox received two top-100 prospects in Teel and Montgomery (Boston’s first-round picks in the last two drafts), a high-floor player in Meidroth and a high-ceiling lottery ticket in Gonzalez.

Teel is one of the best catchers in the game, a disciplined hitter with 20-homer potential who also has solid receiving skills and a strong arm behind the plate. Montgomery has classic right field tools with well above average raw power and arm strength that allowed him to hit fastballs as fast as 96 miles per hour when pitching in college. In retrospect, Teel shouldn’t have lasted until the 14th pick in the 2023 draft, and Montgomery wouldn’t have gone 12th last July if he hadn’t broken his right ankle in an awkward gaffe at the NCAA Super Regionals.

Meidroth, who has played all over the infield but is best suited to second base, is an on-base machine (he led the Triple-A International League with an OBP of .437) although he offers little power. Gonzalez can flash a mid-90s fastball and a hammer curveball when active, and he led the minors in strikeout rate (13.6 K’s per nine innings) and percentage (35%) in 2023 , but it declined last season.

Effects on the trading deadline
About senior national reporter Mark Feinsand

The first major pitching domino in the trade market fell on the final day of the Winter Meetings when the White Sox dealt Crochet to the Red Sox for four prospects.

While none of the other potential trade candidates on the starting pitcher market offer the same combination of talent and control – both in terms of cost and years – as Crochet, Boston’s trade should help spur some other clubs with available pitchers to to become more aggressive.

Luis Castillo is signed for $68.25 million over the next three years, with a vesting option for 2028 if he throws 180 innings during the 2027 season. The Mariners have a ton of starting pitchers and need a bat, making Castillo a logical move to acquire an impact hitter.

Sonny Gray (Cardinals) is scheduled to make $25 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026, with a $30 million club option for 2027, although he has a full no-trade clause , which puts a damper on any potential deal.

Dylan Cease (Padres) and Framber Valdez (Astros) are eligible for arbitration for the last time this winter, meaning each will become free agents next offseason. Jesús Luzardo (Marlins) is eligible for arbitration for two more years before becoming a free agent, although injuries have been a problem for him throughout his career.

The contenders closest to Crochet are Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil, two young Yankees starters who could enter trade talks following New York’s deal with Max Fried. Schmidt and Gil will be under the club’s control for three and four years, respectively, and the Yankees now have seven starting pitchers under contract.

Dive deep
About National Content Editor Andrew Simon

As tempting as it can be to immediately declare a winner and a loser with every trade, sometimes a trade simply makes sense for both sides. That is the case here.

After passing on both Juan Soto and Max Fried, the Red Sox desperately needed a big splash and a top-of-the-rotation arm to regain contention in the AL East. Crochet meets both criteria and immediately becomes Boston’s clear ace. FanGraphs projects him to have a WAR of 4.9 in 2025, a huge improvement for a Red Sox rotation that ranked 20th in projected WAR before this trade, led by Tanner Houck’s 2.9. That unit, which ranked 15th in the majors in K rate last season (22.0%), now boasts a pitcher who struck out 35.1% of batters, the highest rate in MLB ( at least 100 innings).

There is certainly some risk here, as pitchers are generally risky. Notably, Crochet has already had Tommy John surgery and had never started a major league game before this year. But the Red Sox found themselves in a situation where they needed to make a big swing, and giving up a significant young hitter hurts them less than almost any other team. Even with two of MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospects changing their Sox, Boston still has four in its system, including Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell in the top 10 and moving closer to the majors.

However, for a White Sox team trying to bounce back from a 41-121 mess, the two remaining seasons in which Crochet controlled the club didn’t match what will likely be its next competitive window. Now was the time to cash in those chips, especially given Crochet’s injury history and short (albeit impressive) track record.

Chicago decided to hold on to Crochet at the trade deadline, and that patience seemed to pay off here. The White Sox secured an outstanding package with four candidates for Crochet’s two seasons. Catchers who can contribute on both sides of the ball are one of the hardest talents to find, and Teel has a chance to be just that as early as 2025. Montgomery was just the No. 12 pick in the draft five months ago, and even that might undercut the ultra-talented switch-hitter, who was MLB Pipeline’s No. 8 draft prospect but suffered a broken right ankle while playing for Texas A&M in the NCAA Super Regional played.

Of course, the outlook is not always good. Look no further than the four players the White Sox acquired from the Red Sox for another left-hander (Chris Sale) almost exactly eight years ago, also at the Winter Meetings. But at this point, Chris Getz and his front office needed to try and get a rebuild going on the South Side, and this trade could be a big step in that direction.