Georgia’s X-Factor in the Sugar Bowl: Which Bulldogs defense will line up against Notre Dame?

ATHENS, Ga. – Key members of Georgia’s defense and their coordinator met with members of the media Friday afternoon. So of course there was a press conference from Gunner Stockton.

They were good sports. Malaki Starks, a standout safety and likely first-round draft pick, laughed when asked a question for the fourth, then fifth and sixth time about Stockton, whom he has known since he was 5 years old.

“He beat me 33-0 every year. “Every year, I don’t know why,” the Starks said of their high school battles when Starks’ team played Stockton’s. “With the exception of one year, we were 33-6. I scored a goal.”

Jalon Walker, who recently won the Butkus Award, spoke about Stockton’s playing ability. Mykel Williams, another likely first-round candidate, raved about Stockton’s candidacy. Defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann said Stockton’s athleticism “makes you defend the whole field, and he lets you play honest defense.”

Schumann then got a question about Georgia’s actions against Notre Dame in next week’s Sugar Bowl … a question that initially referred to Stockton. From a pure story perspective, it’s understandable.

A quarterback making his first college start in a College Football Playoff game is something people want to talk about.

Jalon Walker (11), Mykel Williams (13) and the Georgia defense held Texas to one touchdown in the SEC championship game. (Joshua L. Jones/USA Today Network via Imagn Images)

However, from an importance standpoint, it misses the other big key to this game: which Georgia defense will show up?

This defense was, at times, the same dominant unit that was the backbone of the Kirby Smart era. But other times it was mediocre.

Defense scores? Georgia ranks 20th nationally in points allowed, which is solid but well below the last three years: first in 2021, fifth in the next two years.

Yards allowed? Georgia has fallen to 37th nationally in yards allowed per game after finishing 11th last year, 15th in 2022 and second in 2021.

And yet Georgia is once again in the hunt for the national title.

“When big moments are needed, our defense is always there to create chaos and create plays for our team,” Walker said.

The SEC Championship Game was a big moment, as was the first Texas game. The same goes for the season opener against Clemson and the second half against Tennessee. But there were problems during the first half against Tennessee, the first half against Alabama, basically the entire Ole Miss game and most of the Georgia Tech game.

“To meet the standard and expectations that we have for the Georgia defense, you have to be consistent,” Schumann said. “Because if you are inconsistent, there will be ups and downs. This group has shown that we can be really good when we give it our best.”

Why isn’t that always the case? Part of it is the schedule. Seven of Georgia’s 13 opponents rank in the top 32 nationally in offensive yards per game. But when a defense gives up 21 points to UMass and 31 to Mississippi State, that’s not the case Only the schedule.

It’s not a specific area either: Georgia ranked fifth in the SEC in pass defense (by yards per attempt) and eighth in rush defense (by yards per rush). The pass rush has been solid: Georgia ranks 26th nationally in pressure rate this year (35.3 percent), an increase from last year (49th at 33.4 percent), and is in line with the 2021 and 2021 teams 2022.

Then there’s Havoc Rate, which has been a focus for years and perfectly encapsulates the rushing inconsistency of this defense. In the two wins against Texas, the Bulldogs recorded 25 tackles for loss. For the rest of the season, their average is just 5.4 per game.

Schumann focused on another area: explosive plays allowed. According to TruMedia, Georgia ranks 33rd in explosive play rate allowed this season at 10.7 percent. Explosives are defined as passes of more than 16 yards and rushes of more than 12 yards.

“When we minimize explosive plays, we play really well,” Schumann said. “Many factors play a role. I think the better we attack, the better we pass the ball downfield and the better we execute. This is what we need for the future. When we’re consistent, we’re pretty good. When that’s not the case, there are times when yards were gained and yards were given up.”

Here are the opponent’s explosive plays for each game:

There was a clear trend in the regular season. But then came the SEC Championship game, where Texas made 11 explosive plays. The difference there was in the red zone: Texas scored 0:3 touchdowns and had to be content with a total of seven field goal attempts. Prior to this game, opponents had scored touchdowns more than half the time after reaching the red zone (51.3 percent).

This could indicate a mature unit. The week of the game, Smart pointed out that the defense seemed to let up when giving up big plays or giving them a big penalty. The opposite was true against the Longhorns.

Ultimately, a return to defense in 2021 would be unrealistic. Seven first-round picks ended up playing for this unit. But this year’s team appears to have at least three, so it should be better.

Maybe some of the confidence has returned. Williams responded to one of the many questions about Stockton by giving his own unit a little pat on the back.

“It’s not like he’s a rookie out there,” he said. “Because he plays great defense every day.”

And Williams and his defensive teammates certainly know that despite all the attention on Stockton, their performance on Wednesday is just as intriguing and important.

(Top photo: Joshua L. Jones / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)