How about Christian Walker? – The crawfish boxes

At least as an adult, I don’t get too worked up about free agent rumors. But as a teenager, as a freshman in high school, I was incredibly excited about the possibility of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte signing with the Astros in the offseason when the rumors started. My dad didn’t share my optimism, so I obviously had an “I told you so” moment when they signed with Houston later that winter. But when Carlos Beltran signed with the Mets just two offseasons later, that youthful naivety gradually faded over time. As I became more familiar with the business side of the game, I realized that my favorite team wouldn’t always come out on top. A free agent signs with a team for a variety of reasons, some more important than others, and there was nothing I could do about it if I was worried about it.

Instead, I would rather emphasize whether a signing makes sense. To keep things current, I never particularly liked Jim Crane bringing back Rafael Montero for three years and $33 million two winters ago. While I will never blame any player for getting paid, it was a misstep at the time and has become more and more obvious in the two seasons since. José Abreu’s decline accelerated faster than I expected, including myself, but there were warning signs. Still, I assumed his signing would at least provide the Astros with decent value in his first two seasons. Obviously that wasn’t the case and has proven to be a disadvantage for this club.

The Astros have a noticeable first base problem thanks to Abreu’s descent into uselessness. According to FanGraphs’ WAR calculation, the position cost the team wins, coming in at -1.4 wins. Only the Rockies and Reds received less value from this position. Things got so bad that Victor Caratini, brought in last winter largely to bolster the bench, started games at first base in the Wild Card round. Without Alex Bregman’s free agency and the potential opening of third base, first base would have been the biggest priority this offseason. It’s probably more of a 1A and 1B situation, as both positions represent a significant need. However, if the plan is to keep Bregman, the Astros could be forced to turn internally at first base. But if Bregman signs elsewhere, Dana Brown has options. One such route could be to sign free agent first baseman Christian Walker. Lo and behold, guess who expressed interest in the bat? The Astros.

Walker’s track record as a prolific hitter is certainly attractive – 120 wRC+ coupled with power over the past three seasons – without a concerning injury history. The only thing that stands out is an oblique injury last season that cost him about a month. According to Statcast, he is also highly regarded defensively and has had a fielding run rate of at least in the 91st percentile since 2022. Not only was first base a hole in the lineup, but the Astros were in last place in Outs Above Average (OAA) at the position with -13 outs. The Diamondbacks scored +9 outs with Walker.

Again, I can’t emphasize how much of an absolute liability first base has been for Houston in 2024. However, Walker will be 34 around Opening Day, and the Astros are just a year away from getting out of Abreu’s disastrous contract, so I’m not sure how much desire there is to add another aging first baseman among the owners and to sign in the front office? Ironically, it would take a contract similar to Abreu’s (three years, $58.5 million) to sign Walker, perhaps slightly less. FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens estimated a three-year, $51, or $17 million per year contract for Walker at the start of the offseason. However, a three-year deal similar to Abreu’s alleviates some long-term issues that likely raise concerns about Bregman’s next contract, so Crane may be willing to take that risk with Walker.

Isn’t it interesting that the Astros are facing a similar situation to two years ago after Yuli Gurriel was strong in 2022 before trading for Abreu? Of course, it helped that Gurriel didn’t get paid $19.5 million per season for not playing, but you get the point. Walker’s age certainly doesn’t help, and his offensive numbers after his oblique injury were rather dull. There’s a real chance, if not probable, that we’ve already seen its peak. But the appeal is definitely there, especially if a team is okay with enduring the second half of the deal if it ages poorly. Ultimately, it depends on how comfortable the Astros are with taking that risk for a second time since winning the World Series in 2022.