India’s chances of final qualification for the ICC World Test Championship appear to be diminishing as they face Australia in the fourth Border-Gavaskar Trophy Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Having fallen significantly behind in the Boxing Day Test in the first two days, it is highly unlikely that India can claim a victory from their current position. The other two remaining results will mean India’s chances of reaching the WTC 2025 final will face a major hurdle ahead of the New Year’s Test in Sydney, which begins on January 3.
India’s WTC Points Percentage (PCT) fell from 57.29 to 55.88 after last week’s draw in Brisbane. Rohit Sharma remained third in the WTC standings, behind Australia (58.89) and South Africa (63.33), who could book their place in next year’s final at Lord’s if they beat Pakistan in the ongoing Test this week beat at Centurion.
Can India qualify for the WTC final if they lose or draw the Melbourne Test?
Only eight points, which corresponds to two draws, separate Australia and India in the WTC standings. While India only has one game left after the MCG Test, Australia still have two games left against Sri Lanka in this edition. Both teams will fight for a total of 228 points, increasing the importance of their two head-to-head clashes in Melbourne and Sydney.
India’s WTC end scenarios
- If INDIA loses the MCG Test but finishes the series 2-2 with a win in Sydney, India will complete their cycle with 126 points and a PCT of 55.26. Australia can then overtake India with two draws or at least win in Sri Lanka.
- If India loses the MCG Test but finishes the series 1-2 with a draw in Sydney, they will end up with 118 points, which Australia would have overtaken by the end of the series.
- If India draw the MCG and Sydney Tests, they will finish with 122 points and a PCT of 53.50. Australia will then need to win at least their two games in Sri Lanka to get past India and qualify for the final.
- If India draw the MCG Test and win in Sydney, they will finish with 130 points and a PCT of 57.01. Australia then needs to beat Sri Lanka 2-0 in Sri Lanka to qualify for the WTC final.
WTC points table before IND vs. AUS, 4th test day 3, as of December 27, 2024
|
Pos. |
team |
Matches |
Points played |
Points |
PCT |
|||
| P | W | L | D | |||||
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 120 | 76 | 63.33 |
| 2 | Australia | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 180 | 102 | 60.71 |
| 3 | India | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 204 | 110 | 57.29 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 168 | 81 | 48.21 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 132 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 6 | England | 22 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 264 | 114 | 43.18 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 120 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh (E) | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 144 | 45 | 31.25 |
| 9 | West Indies (E) | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 132 | 32 | 24.24 |
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