How the Luka Doncic-led Dallas Mavericks can advance to the knockout rounds of the NBA Cup

PORTLAND – The Dallas Mavericks aren’t shy about stating their reasoning for a mid-December trip to Las Vegas.

It’s not about gambling, but if they win the 2024 NBA Cup, they could go home richer than when they arrived.

“That $500,000. Keep it simple. We all want the $500,000,” Quentin Grimes said, referring to the prize for winning the league’s second annual tournament.

The Mavericks can take one step closer to that goal if they secure the Western Conference wild card spot on Tuesday – the final day of group play. But they will still need a lot to advance to the knockout rounds (held in the NBA team markets on December 10th and 11th).

The decision-making scenarios the NBA released Monday morning show 16 teams in the hunt for the single-elimination stage, including the remaining three teams in West Group C. The Golden State Warriors clinched the group by winning their first three games , but Dallas, Denver and Memphis are vying for the only Wild Card spot up for grabs.

The Mavericks (13-8, 2-1 NBA Cup) host the Grizzlies (14-7, 1-2) at American Airlines Center on Tuesday, and both teams are in top form. Dallas has won four straight games and eight of its last nine. Memphis has six straight wins, making it the longest active winning streak in the NBA.

Dallas suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Warriors in the opening game of the NBA Cup with Klay Thompson returning to San Francisco, but suffered its worst loss of the season against New Orleans (1-3) and defeated the Nuggets (1-2) without Luka Doncic.

The Mavericks can’t just win on Tuesday and get in. You will need the support of some rival teams.

Here are the three scenarios for Dallas to secure the West’s Wild Card spot and advance in the tournament:

1. A win over Memphis combined with a win by Oklahoma City (15-5) over Utah (4-16) and a loss by Portland (8-13) against the LA Clippers (13-9).
2. A win over Memphis, a tiebreaker win over Portland and whoever finishes second in West Group B.
3. An Oklahoma City loss to Utah, combined with a Portland loss to the LA Clippers and a Denver (10-8) win over the Warriors (12-7), along with a tiebreaker win over Denver and Memphis and the one who comes second in the West groups A & B.

Note: For Dallas to have a chance of winning the tiebreaker against Denver and Memphis, the Mavericks must lose by fewer than 24 points or in overtime.

The easiest way for the Mavericks to clinch the Wild Card spot is to defeat the Grizzlies with a blowout win to secure second place in West Group C behind the Warriors. Dallas’ lopsided victory over New Orleans played a crucial role in the +41 point difference, the highest of any team in the West except Houston, which had already secured West Group A.

Daniel Gafford said the Mavericks understand the implications and are treating NBA Cup games like normal regular season games despite the flashy seats.

“We have the right approach,” Gafford said. “We come out and have fun playing the game and we just go out there and give it 110%. “We work for the result we want. If we don’t get that result, we’ll go back to the drawing board and figure it out afterwards.”

The Mavericks still receive a portion of the NBA Cup pool prize just for qualifying for the quarterfinals. The pool’s allocations increase depending on how advanced a team is in the tournament. Players on the losing quarterfinal team will receive $51,497, while players who lose in the semifinals will receive $102,994. The runner-up in the championship game will receive $205,998. Finally, the players on the winning team in the championship game will each receive $514,970.

“The tournament is exciting,” Mavericks coach Jason Kidd said. “The players are talking about it. The fans are talking about it. Every point means something. Everyone’s trying to get to Vegas.”

The semifinal and championship games will be played in Las Vegas on December 14th and 17th, respectively.

Grimes reiterated the importance of Tuesday’s cup game after Sunday’s win in Portland.

“We have to do it,” Grimes said. “We did a good job of getting the point difference to be quite high. We have to go into this game with a completely different mindset and not worry about this week. We have to intervene and try to maintain this flow. $500,000 is at stake. We definitely want that real bag.”

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