How the markets are changing for Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt as the Houston Astros make an initial move

An apparent move from Paul Goldschmidt’s hometown Houston Astros will help crystallize the market for him and his All-Star and Cardinals teammate Nolan Arenado.

Just days after Arenado rejected a proposed trade with them, the Astros have reportedly signed first baseman Christian Walker. Walker, the Gold Glove winner who initially took over for Goldschmidt in Arizona in 2019, agreed to a three-year, $60 million contract, according to USA Today. The Astros have been actively looking for a third baseman or first baseman, and their move will have implications for teams that are also in line for free agent first baseman Goldschmidt or Arenado, or both.

The New York Yankees have been exploring options at first base and are considering Goldschmidt for a shorter-term deal, sources said. The Yankees are also among the teams the Cardinals have reached out to to discuss their interest in Arenado. Of course, the level of interest depends on how much of Arenado’s contract the Cardinals are willing to take on.

Arenado is owed $74 million for the remaining three years of his contract, $10 million of which will be picked up by the Rockies. The Cardinals extended his contract for another year in 2027 worth $15 million to allow him to move from Colorado in 2021.

Each offseason is an ecosystem of available players that shape the market and influence offers for one another.

A first baseman in Houston’s hands changes things for two Cardinals on the market.

For teams interested in adding a first baseman, Walker’s signing with the Astros means one less team needed and one less option. Walker turned down a qualifying offer from the Arizona Diamondbacks, who now have reason to explore a reunion with Goldschmidt. The Mets have also expressed interest in Goldschmidt. The San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers are also considered possible suitors for Goldschmidt. Free-agent slugger and first baseman Pete Alonso remains available for the position, as does former Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo.

For teams interested in signing a third baseman, Walker’s signing with the Astros will likely prevent them from re-signing All-Star Alex Bregman and all but rule out their pursuit of Arenado. As part of a trade earlier this week that sent outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs, Houston acquired infielder Isaac Paredes, who has started at least 100 games at third in each of the last two seasons. A select few teams interested in Arenado are also pursuing Bregman.

Arenado’s agent Joel Wolfe put it well at the winter meetings: “Anytime a right-handed hitter signs there, theoretically (there’s a vacancy).”

Arenado, armed with his no-trade clause, and Goldschmidt, a free agent unencumbered by a qualifying offer that costs a team a draft pick, have the final say on where they go.

Last Tuesday, Arenado used his no-trade clause to reject a proposed trade with Houston, and while he rejected that deal, he didn’t completely close the door on an eventual move to the Astros, sources said. Arenado’s contract is complicated by cash from two teams already and deferred funds from two teams, and any deal will require some money shifting to maintain current value.

Bregman’s final landing spot will also clarify Arenado’s decisions and whether a more preferred team is interested, sources report.

The Yankees and Red Sox are reportedly interested in Bregman, who sources say has also spoken to the Cardinals about Arenado. A move to Boston would reunite Arenado with his Colorado teammate Trevor Story. Two other teams approached by the Cardinals, San Diego and the Los Angeles Dodgers, have a third baseman on the roster. Arenado said he would consider a position change to facilitate a preferred trade, Wolfe said. Other teams have contacted the Cardinals about Arenado, but some would not fit Arenado’s desire to move to a team focused on pursuing an immediate championship.

“A team that he believes will win consistently now and for the rest of his career,” Wolfe described earlier this month.

Goldschmidt and Arenado are coming off seasons in which they struggled offensively, and both veteran All-Stars expressed frustration that they were part of the Cardinals’ inconsistency and second straight disappointing season.

Two years after Goldschmidt won the National League MVP title and Arenado finished third in the voting while leading the league in WAR, none of the elite players had even their average season. Arenado hit 16 home runs with a sub-.400 batting average for the first time in his career. Likewise, Goldschmidt had a career-low .416 slugging percentage to go along with a .302 on-base percentage.

Goldschmidt became a free agent when his contract – the largest the Cardinals had ever signed in club history – expired at the end of the season.

The Cardinals acquired Goldschmidt from Arizona in November 2018, and before he played a regular season game for the Cardinals, he agreed to a five-year extension worth $130 million. In his first year in St. Louis, the Cardinals reached the National League Championship Series before being defeated by the Washington Nationals. The Cardinals haven’t won a playoff series since this October, but Goldschmidt has had some of his best individual seasons.

Walker, who turns 34 in March, initially replaced Goldschmidt and emerged as one of Arizona’s leaders in reaching the World Series in 2023. Since 2019, Goldschmidt’s first summer in St. Louis, Walker hit .253/.332/.464 for a .797 OPS with 141 home runs and 434 RBIs. He has won three consecutive Gold Glove Awards at first base, a streak that began a year after Goldschmidt won his first Gold Glove with the Cardinals. Walker’s WAR was 15.4 over the past six seasons.

According to Baseball-Reference.com’s calculations, Goldschmidt’s WAR during that same period with the Cardinals was 22.9.

Goldschmidt, who turned 37 in September, hit .278/.360/.483 for an .843 OPS with the Cardinals. He had 153 home runs and 477 RBIs. Over the last six seasons, Goldschmidt’s Wins Above Replacement, as calculated by FanGraphs, ranked third behind Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson. Walker is fifth, just behind fellow free agent Alonso. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is poised to make money as a free agent next winter, debuted in 2019 and ranks sixth at the position in terms of FanGraphs’ WAR.

Even though he would have secured a draft pick as compensation had he signed elsewhere, the Cardinals declined to make Goldschmidt a qualifying offer – a one-year, $21.05 million contract – because they were seeking a pay cut. That same motivation drives them to pursue a trade for Arenado. Internally, the Cardinals discussed re-signing Goldschmidt at a lower salary if the market eventually made it possible – because his defense would provide such stability for a group of young infielders.

Instead, the Cardinals announced in November that Willson Contreras, who has a no-trade clause, would prefer to remain with the team and move to first base. That opens up playing time for two young catchers, Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, and allows Contreras to fill in as designated hitter at times, allowing Alec Burleson to start at first.

With each move — be it a team signing a free agent or a player switching positions — the possibilities of where two of the Cardinals’ youngest cornerstones go next become clearer.